Epiroc AB Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

EPI-A Stock  SEK 195.35  0.80  0.41%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Epiroc AB on the next trading day is expected to be 194.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.72. Epiroc Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Epiroc AB - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Epiroc AB prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Epiroc AB price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Epiroc AB.

Epiroc AB Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Epiroc AB on the next trading day is expected to be 194.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.50, mean absolute percentage error of 10.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 147.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Epiroc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Epiroc AB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Epiroc AB Stock Forecast Pattern

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Epiroc AB Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Epiroc AB's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Epiroc AB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 193.10 and 196.28, respectively. We have considered Epiroc AB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
195.35
193.10
Downside
194.69
Expected Value
196.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Epiroc AB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Epiroc AB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4055
MADMean absolute deviation2.5037
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0121
SAESum of the absolute errors147.7185
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Epiroc AB observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Epiroc AB observations.

Predictive Modules for Epiroc AB

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Epiroc AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
193.76195.35196.94
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
165.07166.66214.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Epiroc AB. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Epiroc AB's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Epiroc AB's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Epiroc AB.

Other Forecasting Options for Epiroc AB

For every potential investor in Epiroc, whether a beginner or expert, Epiroc AB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Epiroc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Epiroc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Epiroc AB's price trends.

Epiroc AB Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Epiroc AB stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Epiroc AB could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Epiroc AB by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Epiroc AB Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Epiroc AB's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Epiroc AB's current price.

Epiroc AB Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Epiroc AB stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Epiroc AB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Epiroc AB stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Epiroc AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Epiroc AB Risk Indicators

The analysis of Epiroc AB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Epiroc AB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting epiroc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Epiroc Stock Analysis

When running Epiroc AB's price analysis, check to measure Epiroc AB's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Epiroc AB is operating at the current time. Most of Epiroc AB's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Epiroc AB's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Epiroc AB's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Epiroc AB to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.