Deswell Industries Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

DSWL Stock  USD 2.55  0.08  3.04%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Deswell Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 2.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.13. Deswell Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Deswell Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Deswell Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Deswell Industries fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Deswell Industries' Receivables Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 0.83 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 4.53. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to rise to about 16.5 M this year, although the value of Net Income Applicable To Common Shares will most likely fall to about 1.8 M.
Triple exponential smoothing for Deswell Industries - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Deswell Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Deswell Industries price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Deswell Industries.

Deswell Industries Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Deswell Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 2.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Deswell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Deswell Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Deswell Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

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Deswell Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Deswell Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Deswell Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.71 and 4.40, respectively. We have considered Deswell Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.55
2.56
Expected Value
4.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Deswell Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Deswell Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0082
MADMean absolute deviation0.0361
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.014
SAESum of the absolute errors2.1298
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Deswell Industries observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Deswell Industries observations.

Predictive Modules for Deswell Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Deswell Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Deswell Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.702.554.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.612.464.31
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Deswell Industries

For every potential investor in Deswell, whether a beginner or expert, Deswell Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Deswell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Deswell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Deswell Industries' price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Deswell Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Deswell Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Deswell Industries' current price.

Deswell Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Deswell Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Deswell Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Deswell Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Deswell Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Deswell Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of Deswell Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Deswell Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting deswell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Deswell Industries is a strong investment it is important to analyze Deswell Industries' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Deswell Industries' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Deswell Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Deswell Industries to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Deswell Stock please use our How to buy in Deswell Stock guide.
You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Deswell Industries. If investors know Deswell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Deswell Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.592
Earnings Share
0.65
Revenue Per Share
4.353
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
Return On Assets
0.0219
The market value of Deswell Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Deswell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Deswell Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Deswell Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Deswell Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Deswell Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Deswell Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Deswell Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Deswell Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.