Capital World Mutual Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

CWIAX Fund  USD 69.47  0.53  0.77%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Capital World Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 69.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.48. Capital Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Capital World works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Capital World Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Capital World Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 69.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.20, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Capital Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Capital World's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Capital World Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Capital World Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Capital World's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Capital World's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 68.89 and 70.10, respectively. We have considered Capital World's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
69.47
69.50
Expected Value
70.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Capital World mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Capital World mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0748
MADMean absolute deviation0.3471
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0051
SAESum of the absolute errors20.4776
When Capital World Growth prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Capital World Growth trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Capital World observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Capital World

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Capital World Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
68.3468.9469.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
68.1268.7269.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
68.7769.3169.86
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Capital World. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Capital World's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Capital World's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Capital World Growth.

Other Forecasting Options for Capital World

For every potential investor in Capital, whether a beginner or expert, Capital World's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Capital Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Capital. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Capital World's price trends.

Capital World Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Capital World mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Capital World could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Capital World by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Capital World Growth Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Capital World's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Capital World's current price.

Capital World Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Capital World mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Capital World shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Capital World mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Capital World Growth entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Capital World Risk Indicators

The analysis of Capital World's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Capital World's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting capital mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Capital Mutual Fund

Capital World financial ratios help investors to determine whether Capital Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Capital with respect to the benefits of owning Capital World security.
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