CSW Industrials Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

CSWI Stock  USD 400.19  0.76  0.19%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CSW Industrials on the next trading day is expected to be 413.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.94 and the sum of the absolute errors of 667.12. CSW Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CSW Industrials' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
As of now, CSW Industrials' Inventory Turnover is decreasing as compared to previous years. The CSW Industrials' current Payables Turnover is estimated to increase to 12.87, while Receivables Turnover is projected to decrease to 4.21. . The CSW Industrials' current Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is estimated to increase to about 116.4 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is projected to decrease to under 12.5 M.
CSW Industrials polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for CSW Industrials as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

CSW Industrials Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of CSW Industrials on the next trading day is expected to be 413.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.94, mean absolute percentage error of 205.63, and the sum of the absolute errors of 667.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CSW Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CSW Industrials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CSW Industrials Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest CSW IndustrialsCSW Industrials Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

CSW Industrials Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CSW Industrials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CSW Industrials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 411.19 and 414.82, respectively. We have considered CSW Industrials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
400.19
411.19
Downside
413.01
Expected Value
414.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CSW Industrials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CSW Industrials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.4366
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation10.9364
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0285
SAESum of the absolute errors667.1196
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the CSW Industrials historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for CSW Industrials

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CSW Industrials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CSW Industrials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
397.50399.31401.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
330.00331.81441.05
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
342.85389.75436.65
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
181.09199.00220.89
Details

Other Forecasting Options for CSW Industrials

For every potential investor in CSW, whether a beginner or expert, CSW Industrials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CSW Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CSW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CSW Industrials' price trends.

CSW Industrials Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CSW Industrials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CSW Industrials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CSW Industrials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CSW Industrials Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CSW Industrials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CSW Industrials' current price.

CSW Industrials Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CSW Industrials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CSW Industrials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CSW Industrials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CSW Industrials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CSW Industrials Risk Indicators

The analysis of CSW Industrials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CSW Industrials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting csw stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

When determining whether CSW Industrials offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of CSW Industrials' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Csw Industrials Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Csw Industrials Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CSW Industrials to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in CSW Stock please use our How to Invest in CSW Industrials guide.
You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Is Building Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CSW Industrials. If investors know CSW will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CSW Industrials listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.171
Dividend Share
0.8
Earnings Share
7.36
Revenue Per Share
53.781
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.119
The market value of CSW Industrials is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CSW that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CSW Industrials' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CSW Industrials' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CSW Industrials' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CSW Industrials' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CSW Industrials' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CSW Industrials is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CSW Industrials' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.