VanEck Oil Etf Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

CRAK Etf  USD 30.32  0.16  0.52%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VanEck Oil Refiners on the next trading day is expected to be 30.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.48. VanEck Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for VanEck Oil - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When VanEck Oil prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in VanEck Oil price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of VanEck Oil Refiners.

VanEck Oil Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of VanEck Oil Refiners on the next trading day is expected to be 30.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VanEck Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VanEck Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

VanEck Oil Etf Forecast Pattern

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VanEck Oil Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting VanEck Oil's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. VanEck Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29.38 and 31.07, respectively. We have considered VanEck Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.32
30.22
Expected Value
31.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VanEck Oil etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VanEck Oil etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0306
MADMean absolute deviation0.2114
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0065
SAESum of the absolute errors12.4754
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past VanEck Oil observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older VanEck Oil Refiners observations.

Predictive Modules for VanEck Oil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as VanEck Oil Refiners. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29.5130.3631.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.0530.9031.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as VanEck Oil. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against VanEck Oil's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, VanEck Oil's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in VanEck Oil Refiners.

Other Forecasting Options for VanEck Oil

For every potential investor in VanEck, whether a beginner or expert, VanEck Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. VanEck Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in VanEck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying VanEck Oil's price trends.

VanEck Oil Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with VanEck Oil etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of VanEck Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing VanEck Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

VanEck Oil Refiners Technical and Predictive Analytics

The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of VanEck Oil's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of VanEck Oil's current price.

VanEck Oil Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how VanEck Oil etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading VanEck Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying VanEck Oil etf market strength indicators, traders can identify VanEck Oil Refiners entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

VanEck Oil Risk Indicators

The analysis of VanEck Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in VanEck Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vaneck etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether VanEck Oil Refiners is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if VanEck Etf is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Vaneck Oil Refiners Etf. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Vaneck Oil Refiners Etf:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of VanEck Oil to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
The market value of VanEck Oil Refiners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of VanEck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of VanEck Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is VanEck Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because VanEck Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect VanEck Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between VanEck Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if VanEck Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, VanEck Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.