Costco Wholesale Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| COST Stock | USD 890.62 36.46 3.93% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Costco Wholesale Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 858.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 745.30. Costco Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Costco |
Open Interest Against 2025-06-20 Costco Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Costco Wholesale's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Costco Wholesale's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Costco Wholesale stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Costco Wholesale's open interest, investors have to compare it to Costco Wholesale's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Costco Wholesale is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Costco. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Costco Wholesale Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2025
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Costco Wholesale Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 858.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 12.22, mean absolute percentage error of 227.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 745.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Costco Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Costco Wholesale's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Costco Wholesale Stock Forecast Pattern
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Costco Wholesale Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Costco Wholesale's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Costco Wholesale's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 856.60 and 859.81, respectively. We have considered Costco Wholesale's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Costco Wholesale stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Costco Wholesale stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.5366 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 12.218 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0123 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 745.3009 |
Predictive Modules for Costco Wholesale
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Costco Wholesale Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Costco Wholesale's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Costco Wholesale
For every potential investor in Costco, whether a beginner or expert, Costco Wholesale's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Costco Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Costco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Costco Wholesale's price trends.Costco Wholesale Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Costco Wholesale stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Costco Wholesale could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Costco Wholesale by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Costco Wholesale Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Costco Wholesale's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Costco Wholesale's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Costco Wholesale Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Costco Wholesale stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Costco Wholesale shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Costco Wholesale stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Costco Wholesale Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0387 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.02) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 905.61 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 900.61 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 35.78 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (33.22) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (36.46) |
Costco Wholesale Risk Indicators
The analysis of Costco Wholesale's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Costco Wholesale's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting costco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.34 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Costco Stock Analysis
When running Costco Wholesale's price analysis, check to measure Costco Wholesale's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Costco Wholesale is operating at the current time. Most of Costco Wholesale's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Costco Wholesale's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Costco Wholesale's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Costco Wholesale to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.