Materials Petroleum Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

COM Stock   29,300  1,600  5.78%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Materials Petroleum JSC on the next trading day is expected to be 29,350 with a mean absolute deviation of 978.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 57,750. Materials Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Materials Petroleum - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Materials Petroleum prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Materials Petroleum price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Materials Petroleum JSC.

Materials Petroleum Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Materials Petroleum JSC on the next trading day is expected to be 29,350 with a mean absolute deviation of 978.81, mean absolute percentage error of 1,507,076, and the sum of the absolute errors of 57,750.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Materials Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Materials Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Materials Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Sep 20Oct 2Oct 11Oct 24Nov 1Nov 12Nov 20Nov 28Dec 12Dec 2928,00030,00032,00034,00036,000
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Materials Petroleum JSC Materials Petroleum JSC forecast
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Materials Petroleum Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Materials Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Materials Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29,346 and 29,354, respectively. We have considered Materials Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
29,300
29,346
Downside
29,350
Expected Value
29,354
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Materials Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Materials Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 43.2203
MADMean absolute deviation978.8136
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0332
SAESum of the absolute errors57750.0
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Materials Petroleum observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Materials Petroleum JSC observations.

Predictive Modules for Materials Petroleum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Materials Petroleum JSC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
29,29629,30029,304
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25,50025,50432,230
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Materials Petroleum

For every potential investor in Materials, whether a beginner or expert, Materials Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Materials Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Materials. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Materials Petroleum's price trends.

Materials Petroleum Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Materials Petroleum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Materials Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Materials Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Materials Petroleum JSC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Materials Petroleum's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Materials Petroleum's current price.

Materials Petroleum Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Materials Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Materials Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Materials Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Materials Petroleum JSC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Materials Petroleum Risk Indicators

The analysis of Materials Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Materials Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting materials stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Materials Petroleum

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Materials Petroleum position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Materials Petroleum will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Materials Stock

  0.37JVC Japan Vietnam MedicalPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Materials Petroleum could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Materials Petroleum when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Materials Petroleum - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Materials Petroleum JSC to buy it.
The correlation of Materials Petroleum is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Materials Petroleum moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Materials Petroleum JSC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Materials Petroleum can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Materials Stock

Materials Petroleum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Materials Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Materials with respect to the benefits of owning Materials Petroleum security.