CSL Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

CMXHF Stock  USD 173.50  0.90  0.52%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CSL Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 173.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97 and the sum of the absolute errors of 178.31. CSL Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CSL's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
CSL simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for CSL Limited are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as CSL Limited prices get older.

CSL Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CSL Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 173.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.97, mean absolute percentage error of 17.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 178.31.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CSL Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CSL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CSL Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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CSL Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CSL's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CSL's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 171.00 and 175.59, respectively. We have considered CSL's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
173.50
171.00
Downside
173.30
Expected Value
175.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CSL pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CSL pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.112
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4892
MADMean absolute deviation2.9718
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0163
SAESum of the absolute errors178.3107
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting CSL Limited forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent CSL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for CSL

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CSL Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
171.20173.50175.80
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
146.75149.05190.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CSL. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CSL's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CSL's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CSL Limited.

Other Forecasting Options for CSL

For every potential investor in CSL, whether a beginner or expert, CSL's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CSL Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CSL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CSL's price trends.

CSL Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CSL pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CSL could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CSL by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CSL Limited Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CSL's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CSL's current price.

CSL Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CSL pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CSL shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CSL pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify CSL Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CSL Risk Indicators

The analysis of CSL's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CSL's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting csl pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in CSL Pink Sheet

CSL financial ratios help investors to determine whether CSL Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in CSL with respect to the benefits of owning CSL security.