Conestoga Smid Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

CCSGX Fund  USD 28.32  0.01  0.04%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Conestoga Smid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 28.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.49. Conestoga Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Conestoga Smid is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Conestoga Smid Cap value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Conestoga Smid Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Conestoga Smid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 28.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.49.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Conestoga Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Conestoga Smid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Conestoga Smid Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Conestoga SmidConestoga Smid Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Conestoga Smid Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Conestoga Smid's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Conestoga Smid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.14 and 29.10, respectively. We have considered Conestoga Smid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.32
28.12
Expected Value
29.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Conestoga Smid mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Conestoga Smid mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1689
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2867
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0106
SAESum of the absolute errors17.4908
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Conestoga Smid Cap. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Conestoga Smid. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Conestoga Smid

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Conestoga Smid Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.3428.3229.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.3628.3429.32
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
28.0528.4928.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Conestoga Smid. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Conestoga Smid's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Conestoga Smid's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Conestoga Smid Cap.

Other Forecasting Options for Conestoga Smid

For every potential investor in Conestoga, whether a beginner or expert, Conestoga Smid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Conestoga Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Conestoga. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Conestoga Smid's price trends.

Conestoga Smid Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Conestoga Smid mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Conestoga Smid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Conestoga Smid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Conestoga Smid Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Conestoga Smid's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Conestoga Smid's current price.

Conestoga Smid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Conestoga Smid mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Conestoga Smid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Conestoga Smid mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Conestoga Smid Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Conestoga Smid Risk Indicators

The analysis of Conestoga Smid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Conestoga Smid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting conestoga mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Conestoga Mutual Fund

Conestoga Smid financial ratios help investors to determine whether Conestoga Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Conestoga with respect to the benefits of owning Conestoga Smid security.
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