CONSOL Energy Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

C9X Stock  EUR 103.50  1.65  1.57%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CONSOL Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 107.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 237.96. CONSOL Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CONSOL Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for CONSOL Energy is based on an artificially constructed time series of CONSOL Energy daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

CONSOL Energy 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of CONSOL Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 107.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.49, mean absolute percentage error of 34.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 237.96.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CONSOL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CONSOL Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CONSOL Energy Stock Forecast Pattern

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CONSOL Energy Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CONSOL Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CONSOL Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 105.07 and 110.07, respectively. We have considered CONSOL Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
103.50
105.07
Downside
107.57
Expected Value
110.07
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CONSOL Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CONSOL Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria106.959
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.0213
MADMean absolute deviation4.4898
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0399
SAESum of the absolute errors237.9613
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. CONSOL Energy 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for CONSOL Energy

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CONSOL Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
101.00103.50106.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
93.15125.22127.72
Details

Other Forecasting Options for CONSOL Energy

For every potential investor in CONSOL, whether a beginner or expert, CONSOL Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CONSOL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CONSOL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CONSOL Energy's price trends.

CONSOL Energy Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CONSOL Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CONSOL Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CONSOL Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CONSOL Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CONSOL Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CONSOL Energy's current price.

CONSOL Energy Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CONSOL Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CONSOL Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CONSOL Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CONSOL Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CONSOL Energy Risk Indicators

The analysis of CONSOL Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CONSOL Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting consol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in CONSOL Stock

When determining whether CONSOL Energy offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of CONSOL Energy's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Consol Energy Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Consol Energy Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CONSOL Energy to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in CONSOL Stock please use our How to Invest in CONSOL Energy guide.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between CONSOL Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CONSOL Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CONSOL Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.