C1MI34 Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

C1MI34 Stock  BRL 553.50  2.94  0.53%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of C1MI34 on the next trading day is expected to be 501.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 705.20. C1MI34 Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast C1MI34 stock prices and determine the direction of C1MI34's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of C1MI34's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for C1MI34 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of C1MI34 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

C1MI34 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of C1MI34 on the next trading day is expected to be 501.94 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.56, mean absolute percentage error of 295.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 705.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict C1MI34 Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that C1MI34's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

C1MI34 Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest C1MI34C1MI34 Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

C1MI34 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting C1MI34's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. C1MI34's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 498.91 and 504.96, respectively. We have considered C1MI34's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
553.50
498.91
Downside
501.94
Expected Value
504.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of C1MI34 stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent C1MI34 stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.7987
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation11.5607
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0225
SAESum of the absolute errors705.2038
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of C1MI34. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict C1MI34. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for C1MI34

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as C1MI34. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
550.48553.50556.52
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
506.20509.22608.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as C1MI34. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against C1MI34's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, C1MI34's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in C1MI34.

Other Forecasting Options for C1MI34

For every potential investor in C1MI34, whether a beginner or expert, C1MI34's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. C1MI34 Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in C1MI34. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying C1MI34's price trends.

C1MI34 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with C1MI34 stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of C1MI34 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing C1MI34 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

C1MI34 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of C1MI34's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of C1MI34's current price.

C1MI34 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how C1MI34 stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading C1MI34 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying C1MI34 stock market strength indicators, traders can identify C1MI34 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

C1MI34 Risk Indicators

The analysis of C1MI34's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in C1MI34's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting c1mi34 stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in C1MI34 Stock

C1MI34 financial ratios help investors to determine whether C1MI34 Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in C1MI34 with respect to the benefits of owning C1MI34 security.