Bursa Cimento Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BUCIM Stock | TRY 8.12 0.06 0.73% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bursa Cimento Fabrikasi on the next trading day is expected to be 8.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.77. Bursa Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bursa Cimento's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Bursa |
Bursa Cimento Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bursa Cimento Fabrikasi on the next trading day is expected to be 8.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bursa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bursa Cimento's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bursa Cimento Stock Forecast Pattern
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Bursa Cimento Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bursa Cimento's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bursa Cimento's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.72 and 10.52, respectively. We have considered Bursa Cimento's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bursa Cimento stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bursa Cimento stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8734 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0118 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1295 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0179 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.77 |
Predictive Modules for Bursa Cimento
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bursa Cimento Fabrikasi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Bursa Cimento
For every potential investor in Bursa, whether a beginner or expert, Bursa Cimento's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bursa Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bursa. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bursa Cimento's price trends.Bursa Cimento Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bursa Cimento stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bursa Cimento could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bursa Cimento by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bursa Cimento Fabrikasi Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bursa Cimento's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bursa Cimento's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bursa Cimento Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bursa Cimento stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bursa Cimento shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bursa Cimento stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bursa Cimento Fabrikasi entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bursa Cimento Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bursa Cimento's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bursa Cimento's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bursa stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.37 | |||
| Variance | 5.6 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.45 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Bursa Stock
Bursa Cimento financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bursa Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bursa with respect to the benefits of owning Bursa Cimento security.