Brenntag Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

BNTGY Stock  USD 13.17  0.04  0.30%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brenntag AG ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 13.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.76. Brenntag Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Brenntag - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Brenntag prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Brenntag price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Brenntag AG ADR.

Brenntag Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Brenntag AG ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 13.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.76.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Brenntag Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Brenntag's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Brenntag Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Brenntag Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Brenntag's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Brenntag's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.36 and 15.01, respectively. We have considered Brenntag's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.17
13.19
Expected Value
15.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Brenntag pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Brenntag pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0343
MADMean absolute deviation0.1825
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0147
SAESum of the absolute errors10.765
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Brenntag observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Brenntag AG ADR observations.

Predictive Modules for Brenntag

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brenntag AG ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
11.3413.1715.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.9212.7514.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
12.3813.0613.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Brenntag. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Brenntag's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Brenntag's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Brenntag AG ADR.

Other Forecasting Options for Brenntag

For every potential investor in Brenntag, whether a beginner or expert, Brenntag's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Brenntag Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Brenntag. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Brenntag's price trends.

Brenntag Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Brenntag pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Brenntag could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Brenntag by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Brenntag AG ADR Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Brenntag's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Brenntag's current price.

Brenntag Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Brenntag pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Brenntag shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Brenntag pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Brenntag AG ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Brenntag Risk Indicators

The analysis of Brenntag's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Brenntag's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting brenntag pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Brenntag Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Brenntag's price analysis, check to measure Brenntag's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Brenntag is operating at the current time. Most of Brenntag's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Brenntag's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Brenntag's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Brenntag to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.