Bristol Myers Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

BMYB34 Stock  BRL 355.25  12.45  3.63%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Bristol Myers Squibb on the next trading day is expected to be 366.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 491.60. Bristol Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bristol Myers stock prices and determine the direction of Bristol Myers Squibb's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bristol Myers' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Bristol Myers price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Bristol Myers Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Bristol Myers Squibb on the next trading day is expected to be 366.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.06, mean absolute percentage error of 99.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 491.60.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bristol Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bristol Myers' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Bristol Myers Stock Forecast Pattern

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Bristol Myers Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Bristol Myers' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bristol Myers' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 364.08 and 368.74, respectively. We have considered Bristol Myers' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
355.25
364.08
Downside
366.41
Expected Value
368.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bristol Myers stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bristol Myers stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.7075
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation8.059
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0244
SAESum of the absolute errors491.598
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Bristol Myers Squibb historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Bristol Myers

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bristol Myers Squibb. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
352.92355.25357.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
260.56262.88390.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bristol Myers. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bristol Myers' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bristol Myers' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bristol Myers Squibb.

Other Forecasting Options for Bristol Myers

For every potential investor in Bristol, whether a beginner or expert, Bristol Myers' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bristol Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bristol. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bristol Myers' price trends.

Bristol Myers Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bristol Myers stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bristol Myers could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bristol Myers by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Bristol Myers Squibb Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bristol Myers' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bristol Myers' current price.

Bristol Myers Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bristol Myers stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bristol Myers shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bristol Myers stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bristol Myers Squibb entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Bristol Myers Risk Indicators

The analysis of Bristol Myers' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bristol Myers' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bristol stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Bristol Stock

When determining whether Bristol Myers Squibb offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bristol Myers' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bristol Myers Squibb Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bristol Myers Squibb Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bristol Myers to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bristol Myers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bristol Myers is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bristol Myers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.