BJs Wholesale Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

BJ Stock  USD 95.21  1.09  1.13%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of BJs Wholesale Club on the next trading day is expected to be 93.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.58. BJs Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although BJs Wholesale's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of BJs Wholesale's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of BJs Wholesale fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, BJs Wholesale's Payables Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to hike to 16.81 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 10.32. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to hike to about 146.8 M this year. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to hike to about 619.7 M this year.

Open Interest Against 2024-12-20 BJs Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast BJs Wholesale's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in BJs Wholesale's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for BJs Wholesale stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current BJs Wholesale's open interest, investors have to compare it to BJs Wholesale's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of BJs Wholesale is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in BJs. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through BJs Wholesale price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

BJs Wholesale Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 4th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of BJs Wholesale Club on the next trading day is expected to be 93.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.88, mean absolute percentage error of 6.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 114.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BJs Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BJs Wholesale's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BJs Wholesale Stock Forecast Pattern

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BJs Wholesale Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BJs Wholesale's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BJs Wholesale's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 92.08 and 95.20, respectively. We have considered BJs Wholesale's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
95.21
93.64
Expected Value
95.20
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BJs Wholesale stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BJs Wholesale stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.9063
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.8784
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0213
SAESum of the absolute errors114.5798
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as BJs Wholesale Club historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for BJs Wholesale

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BJs Wholesale Club. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
93.7595.3196.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
91.6893.24104.73
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
86.1790.6495.10
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
71.2878.3386.95
Details

Other Forecasting Options for BJs Wholesale

For every potential investor in BJs, whether a beginner or expert, BJs Wholesale's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BJs Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BJs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BJs Wholesale's price trends.

BJs Wholesale Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BJs Wholesale stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BJs Wholesale could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BJs Wholesale by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BJs Wholesale Club Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of BJs Wholesale's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of BJs Wholesale's current price.

BJs Wholesale Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BJs Wholesale stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BJs Wholesale shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BJs Wholesale stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BJs Wholesale Club entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BJs Wholesale Risk Indicators

The analysis of BJs Wholesale's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BJs Wholesale's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bjs stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BJs Wholesale to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Is Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of BJs Wholesale. If investors know BJs will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about BJs Wholesale listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.113
Earnings Share
4.12
Revenue Per Share
153.894
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.049
Return On Assets
0.0733
The market value of BJs Wholesale Club is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of BJs that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of BJs Wholesale's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is BJs Wholesale's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because BJs Wholesale's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect BJs Wholesale's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between BJs Wholesale's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if BJs Wholesale is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, BJs Wholesale's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.