Biogen Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

BIIB34 Stock  BRL 152.70  2.54  1.69%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Biogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 152.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.78. Biogen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Biogen stock prices and determine the direction of Biogen Inc's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Biogen's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Biogen works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Biogen Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Biogen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 152.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.73, mean absolute percentage error of 7.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 101.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Biogen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Biogen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Biogen Stock Forecast Pattern

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Biogen Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Biogen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Biogen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 150.58 and 153.74, respectively. We have considered Biogen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
152.70
150.58
Downside
152.16
Expected Value
153.74
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Biogen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Biogen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1322
MADMean absolute deviation1.7251
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0105
SAESum of the absolute errors101.78
When Biogen Inc prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Biogen Inc trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Biogen observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Biogen

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Biogen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
151.12152.70154.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
131.68133.26167.97
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Biogen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Biogen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Biogen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Biogen Inc.

Other Forecasting Options for Biogen

For every potential investor in Biogen, whether a beginner or expert, Biogen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Biogen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Biogen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Biogen's price trends.

Biogen Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Biogen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Biogen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Biogen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Biogen Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Biogen's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Biogen's current price.

Biogen Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Biogen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Biogen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Biogen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Biogen Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Biogen Risk Indicators

The analysis of Biogen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Biogen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting biogen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Biogen Stock

When determining whether Biogen Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Biogen's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Biogen Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Biogen Inc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Biogen to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Biogen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Biogen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Biogen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.