Baillie Gifford Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

BGCDX Fund  USD 5.29  0.05  0.95%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Baillie Gifford China on the next trading day is expected to be 5.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.35. Baillie Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Baillie Gifford price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Baillie Gifford Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Baillie Gifford China on the next trading day is expected to be 5.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.35.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Baillie Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Baillie Gifford's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Baillie Gifford Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Baillie Gifford Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Baillie Gifford's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Baillie Gifford's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.08 and 8.14, respectively. We have considered Baillie Gifford's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.29
5.61
Expected Value
8.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Baillie Gifford mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Baillie Gifford mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.4426
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.35
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0668
SAESum of the absolute errors21.3522
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Baillie Gifford China historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Baillie Gifford

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Baillie Gifford China. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Baillie Gifford's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.765.297.82
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.364.897.42
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Baillie Gifford

For every potential investor in Baillie, whether a beginner or expert, Baillie Gifford's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Baillie Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Baillie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Baillie Gifford's price trends.

Baillie Gifford Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Baillie Gifford mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Baillie Gifford could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Baillie Gifford by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Baillie Gifford China Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Baillie Gifford's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Baillie Gifford's current price.

Baillie Gifford Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Baillie Gifford mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Baillie Gifford shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Baillie Gifford mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Baillie Gifford China entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Baillie Gifford Risk Indicators

The analysis of Baillie Gifford's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Baillie Gifford's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting baillie mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Baillie Mutual Fund

Baillie Gifford financial ratios help investors to determine whether Baillie Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Baillie with respect to the benefits of owning Baillie Gifford security.
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