ASML Holding Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ASML Stock | USD 756.33 6.05 0.81% |
The Simple Regression forecasted value of ASML Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 735.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,057. ASML Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although ASML Holding's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of ASML Holding's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of ASML Holding fundamentals over time.
ASML |
Open Interest Against 2025-04-17 ASML Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ASML Holding's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ASML Holding's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ASML Holding stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ASML Holding's open interest, investors have to compare it to ASML Holding's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ASML Holding is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ASML. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ASML Holding Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 19th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of ASML Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 735.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 17.05, mean absolute percentage error of 434.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,057.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASML Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASML Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ASML Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ASML Holding | ASML Holding Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ASML Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ASML Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASML Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 733.62 and 737.42, respectively. We have considered ASML Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASML Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASML Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.0217 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 17.045 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0243 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1056.7919 |
Predictive Modules for ASML Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASML Holding NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for ASML Holding
For every potential investor in ASML, whether a beginner or expert, ASML Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASML Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASML. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASML Holding's price trends.ASML Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASML Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASML Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASML Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ASML Holding NV Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ASML Holding's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ASML Holding's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ASML Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASML Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASML Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASML Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ASML Holding NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 43588.04 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.3418 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 760.35 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 759.01 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.99) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 6.05 |
ASML Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of ASML Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASML Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asml stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Variance | 8.51 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASML Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ASML Holding. If investors know ASML will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ASML Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.098 | Dividend Share 1.75 | Earnings Share 18.08 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.119 |
The market value of ASML Holding NV is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ASML that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ASML Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ASML Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ASML Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ASML Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ASML Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ASML Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ASML Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.