ASML Holding Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ASME Stock | EUR 671.10 1.90 0.28% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASML Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 669.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.50 and the sum of the absolute errors of 855.55. ASML Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ASML Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
ASML |
ASML Holding Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASML Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 669.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.50, mean absolute percentage error of 553.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 855.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASML Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASML Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ASML Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
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ASML Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ASML Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASML Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 666.63 and 672.60, respectively. We have considered ASML Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASML Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASML Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -3.8576 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 14.5008 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0212 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 855.5484 |
Predictive Modules for ASML Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASML Holding NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASML Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for ASML Holding
For every potential investor in ASML, whether a beginner or expert, ASML Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASML Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASML. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASML Holding's price trends.ASML Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASML Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASML Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASML Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ASML Holding NV Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ASML Holding's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ASML Holding's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
ASML Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASML Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASML Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASML Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ASML Holding NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ASML Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of ASML Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASML Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asml stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.86 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.65 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.03 | |||
| Variance | 9.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.8 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.31 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in ASML Stock
When determining whether ASML Holding NV is a strong investment it is important to analyze ASML Holding's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact ASML Holding's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding ASML Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASML Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.