ARK Autonomous Etf Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ARKQ Etf | USD 75.55 1.21 1.58% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ARK Autonomous Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 76.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.79. ARK Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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ARK Autonomous Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ARK Autonomous Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 76.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.79.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ARK Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ARK Autonomous' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ARK Autonomous Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ARK Autonomous | ARK Autonomous Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ARK Autonomous Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ARK Autonomous' Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ARK Autonomous' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 74.61 and 77.82, respectively. We have considered ARK Autonomous' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ARK Autonomous etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ARK Autonomous etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1005 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8269 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0128 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 48.7853 |
Predictive Modules for ARK Autonomous
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARK Autonomous Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for ARK Autonomous
For every potential investor in ARK, whether a beginner or expert, ARK Autonomous' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ARK Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ARK. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ARK Autonomous' price trends.ARK Autonomous Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ARK Autonomous etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ARK Autonomous could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ARK Autonomous by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ARK Autonomous Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ARK Autonomous' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ARK Autonomous' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ARK Autonomous Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ARK Autonomous etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ARK Autonomous shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ARK Autonomous etf market strength indicators, traders can identify ARK Autonomous Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ARK Autonomous Risk Indicators
The analysis of ARK Autonomous' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ARK Autonomous' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ark etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Variance | 2.79 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.34 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with ARK Autonomous
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ARK Autonomous position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ARK Autonomous will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with ARK Etf
| 0.9 | VGT | Vanguard Information | PairCorr |
| 0.83 | XLK | Technology Select Sector | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | IYW | iShares Technology ETF | PairCorr |
Moving against ARK Etf
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ARK Autonomous could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ARK Autonomous when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ARK Autonomous - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ARK Autonomous Technology to buy it.
The correlation of ARK Autonomous is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ARK Autonomous moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ARK Autonomous Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ARK Autonomous can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARK Autonomous to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
The market value of ARK Autonomous Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ARK that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ARK Autonomous' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ARK Autonomous' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ARK Autonomous' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ARK Autonomous' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ARK Autonomous' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ARK Autonomous is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ARK Autonomous' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.