Arcos Dorados Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ARCO Stock | USD 8.29 0.12 1.47% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcos Dorados Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 7.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34. Arcos Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Arcos Dorados' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Arcos Dorados' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Arcos Dorados fundamentals over time.
Arcos |
Arcos Dorados Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Arcos Dorados' financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 2009-12-31 | Previous Quarter 104.2 M | Current Value 115.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 63.4 M |
Arcos Dorados Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcos Dorados Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 7.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arcos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arcos Dorados' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arcos Dorados Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arcos Dorados | Arcos Dorados Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arcos Dorados Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arcos Dorados' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arcos Dorados' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.16 and 10.45, respectively. We have considered Arcos Dorados' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arcos Dorados stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arcos Dorados stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.1985 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1858 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.3362 |
Predictive Modules for Arcos Dorados
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcos Dorados Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcos Dorados' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Arcos Dorados
For every potential investor in Arcos, whether a beginner or expert, Arcos Dorados' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arcos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arcos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arcos Dorados' price trends.Arcos Dorados Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arcos Dorados stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arcos Dorados could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arcos Dorados by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arcos Dorados Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arcos Dorados' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arcos Dorados' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Arcos Dorados Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arcos Dorados stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arcos Dorados shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arcos Dorados stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arcos Dorados Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arcos Dorados Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arcos Dorados' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arcos Dorados' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.62 | |||
| Variance | 6.88 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Arcos Dorados
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arcos Dorados position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arcos Dorados will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Arcos Stock
| 0.52 | LNW | Light Wonder | PairCorr |
| 0.47 | LIND | Lindblad Expeditions | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | GAMB | Gambling Group | PairCorr |
| 0.4 | BH | Biglari Holdings | PairCorr |
| 0.34 | DRI | Darden Restaurants | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arcos Dorados could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arcos Dorados when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arcos Dorados - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arcos Dorados Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Arcos Dorados is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arcos Dorados moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arcos Dorados Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arcos Dorados can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcos Dorados to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arcos Dorados. If investors know Arcos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arcos Dorados listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Earnings Share 0.69 | Revenue Per Share 21.328 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 | Return On Assets 0.0693 |
The market value of Arcos Dorados Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arcos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arcos Dorados' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arcos Dorados' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arcos Dorados' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arcos Dorados' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arcos Dorados' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arcos Dorados is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arcos Dorados' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.