Agora Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| API Stock | USD 5.06 0.10 1.94% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agora Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 4.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.97. Agora Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Agora's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Agora |
Agora Cash Forecast
Predicting cash flow or other financial metrics requires analysts to utilize a variety of statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools help uncover hidden patterns in the Agora's financial statements, enabling forecasts of their impact on future stock prices.
Cash | First Reported 2019-03-31 | Previous Quarter 37.6 M | Current Value 32.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 154.3 M |
Agora Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agora Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 4.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.41, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.97.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agora Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agora's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Agora Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Agora | Agora Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Agora Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Agora's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agora's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 18.43, respectively. We have considered Agora's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agora stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agora stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0238 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4093 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1199 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 24.9675 |
Predictive Modules for Agora
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agora Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Agora
For every potential investor in Agora, whether a beginner or expert, Agora's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agora Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agora. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agora's price trends.Agora Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agora stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agora could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agora by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Agora Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agora's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agora's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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Agora Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Agora stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Agora shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Agora stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Agora Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 906761.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.1) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.27 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.37) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
Agora Risk Indicators
The analysis of Agora's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agora's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting agora stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 13.59 | |||
| Variance | 184.61 | |||
| Downside Variance | 58.51 | |||
| Semi Variance | 35.34 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (9.27) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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When determining whether Agora Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Agora's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Agora Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Agora Inc Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agora to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agora. If investors know Agora will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agora listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.51) | Revenue Per Share 1.463 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.005 | Return On Assets (0.04) | Return On Equity (0.07) |
The market value of Agora Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agora that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agora's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agora's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agora's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agora's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agora's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Agora is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agora's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.