Admiral Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMIGY Stock | USD 38.67 0.19 0.49% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Admiral Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 40.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.55. Admiral Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Admiral |
Admiral Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2025
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Admiral Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 40.06 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45, mean absolute percentage error of 0.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.55.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Admiral Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Admiral Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Admiral Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Admiral Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Admiral Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Admiral Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.47 and 41.66, respectively. We have considered Admiral Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Admiral Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Admiral Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0265 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4516 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0133 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 27.5471 |
Predictive Modules for Admiral Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Admiral Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Admiral Group
For every potential investor in Admiral, whether a beginner or expert, Admiral Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Admiral Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Admiral. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Admiral Group's price trends.Admiral Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Admiral Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Admiral Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Admiral Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Admiral Group PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Admiral Group's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Admiral Group's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Admiral Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Admiral Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Admiral Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Admiral Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Admiral Group PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Admiral Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Admiral Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Admiral Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting admiral pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Admiral Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Admiral Group's price analysis, check to measure Admiral Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Admiral Group is operating at the current time. Most of Admiral Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Admiral Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Admiral Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Admiral Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.