Amana Developing Mutual Fund Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

AMDWX Fund  USD 13.68  0.06  0.44%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Amana Developing World on the next trading day is expected to be 13.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.12. Amana Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Amana Developing World is based on a synthetically constructed Amana Developingdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Amana Developing 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Amana Developing World on the next trading day is expected to be 13.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amana Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amana Developing's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Amana Developing Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Amana Developing Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Amana Developing's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amana Developing's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.92 and 14.29, respectively. We have considered Amana Developing's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.68
13.61
Expected Value
14.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amana Developing mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amana Developing mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria80.3197
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1563
MADMean absolute deviation0.1934
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0141
SAESum of the absolute errors8.122
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Amana Developing World 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Amana Developing

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amana Developing World. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amana Developing's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.0013.6814.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.0913.7714.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.3513.9814.61
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Amana Developing

For every potential investor in Amana, whether a beginner or expert, Amana Developing's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amana Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amana. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amana Developing's price trends.

Amana Developing Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amana Developing mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amana Developing could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amana Developing by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Amana Developing World Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Amana Developing's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Amana Developing's current price.

Amana Developing Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amana Developing mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amana Developing shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amana Developing mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Amana Developing World entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Amana Developing Risk Indicators

The analysis of Amana Developing's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amana Developing's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amana mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Amana Mutual Fund

Amana Developing financial ratios help investors to determine whether Amana Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Amana with respect to the benefits of owning Amana Developing security.
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