Alephium Crypto Coin Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALPH Crypto | 1.26 0.09 6.67% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alephium on the next trading day is expected to be 1.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.20. Alephium Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alephium crypto prices and determine the direction of Alephium's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alephium's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Alephium |
Alephium Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alephium on the next trading day is expected to be 1.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alephium Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alephium's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alephium Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern
Alephium Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alephium's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alephium's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 127.19, respectively. We have considered Alephium's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alephium crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alephium crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0766 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1673 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.223372036854776E14 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.2026 |
Predictive Modules for Alephium
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alephium. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the crypto coin market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the crypto coin market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alephium
For every potential investor in Alephium, whether a beginner or expert, Alephium's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alephium Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alephium. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alephium's price trends.Alephium Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alephium crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alephium could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alephium by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alephium Technical and Predictive Analytics
The crypto coin market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alephium's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alephium's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alephium Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alephium crypto coin reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alephium shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alephium crypto coin market strength indicators, traders can identify Alephium entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alephium Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alephium's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alephium's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alephium crypto coin prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 30.95 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 13.56 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 125.98 | |||
| Variance | 15870.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 371.44 | |||
| Semi Variance | 183.89 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (49.68) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| BTC | Bitcoin | |
| TRX | TRON | |
| BNB | Binance Coin |
Check out fundamental analysis of Alephium to check your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alephium's coin value and its market price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Cryptocurrency investors typically determine Alephium value by looking at such factors as its true mass adoption, usability, application, safety as well as its ability to resist fraud and manipulation. On the other hand, Alephium's price is the amount at which it trades on the cryptocurrency exchange or other digital marketplace that truly represents its supply and demand.