Alpcot Holding Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ALPCOT-B | 0.60 0.03 4.76% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alpcot Holding AB on the next trading day is expected to be 0.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.13. Alpcot Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alpcot Holding stock prices and determine the direction of Alpcot Holding AB's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alpcot Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Alpcot |
Alpcot Holding Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Alpcot Holding AB on the next trading day is expected to be 0.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alpcot Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alpcot Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alpcot Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
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Alpcot Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alpcot Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alpcot Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.08, respectively. We have considered Alpcot Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alpcot Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alpcot Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.7629 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0186 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0295 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.1334 |
Predictive Modules for Alpcot Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alpcot Holding AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alpcot Holding
For every potential investor in Alpcot, whether a beginner or expert, Alpcot Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alpcot Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alpcot. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alpcot Holding's price trends.Alpcot Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alpcot Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alpcot Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alpcot Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alpcot Holding AB Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alpcot Holding's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alpcot Holding's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alpcot Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alpcot Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alpcot Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alpcot Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alpcot Holding AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alpcot Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alpcot Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alpcot Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alpcot stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.97 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.51 | |||
| Variance | 20.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Alpcot Stock
Alpcot Holding financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alpcot Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alpcot with respect to the benefits of owning Alpcot Holding security.