Addex Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ADXN Stock  USD 7.53  0.33  4.58%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Addex Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.21. Addex Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Addex Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Addex Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Addex Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Addex Therapeutics' Inventory Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 6th of December 2024, Payables Turnover is likely to grow to 7.39, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 7.27. . As of the 6th of December 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 78 M, though Net Loss is likely to grow to (17.8 M).
Triple exponential smoothing for Addex Therapeutics - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Addex Therapeutics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Addex Therapeutics price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Addex Therapeutics.

Addex Therapeutics Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Addex Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 7.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Addex Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Addex Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Addex Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Addex Therapeutics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Addex Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Addex Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2.26 and 12.49, respectively. We have considered Addex Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.53
7.38
Expected Value
12.49
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Addex Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Addex Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0562
MADMean absolute deviation0.3933
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.042
SAESum of the absolute errors23.2057
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Addex Therapeutics observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Addex Therapeutics observations.

Predictive Modules for Addex Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Addex Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Addex Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.417.5312.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.987.1012.22
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
6.218.7611.31
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
27.2929.9933.29
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Addex Therapeutics

For every potential investor in Addex, whether a beginner or expert, Addex Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Addex Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Addex. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Addex Therapeutics' price trends.

Addex Therapeutics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Addex Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Addex Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Addex Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Addex Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Addex Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Addex Therapeutics' current price.

Addex Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Addex Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Addex Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Addex Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Addex Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Addex Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Addex Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Addex Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting addex stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Addex Therapeutics

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Addex Therapeutics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Addex Therapeutics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Addex Stock

  0.77OCX OncoCyte CorpPairCorr
  0.72PFE Pfizer Inc Fiscal Year End 4th of February 2025 PairCorr

Moving against Addex Stock

  0.84FUWAF Furukawa ElectricPairCorr
  0.8INFU InfuSystems HoldingsPairCorr
  0.78FMCB Farmers Merchants BancorpPairCorr
  0.46WAT WatersPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Addex Therapeutics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Addex Therapeutics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Addex Therapeutics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Addex Therapeutics to buy it.
The correlation of Addex Therapeutics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Addex Therapeutics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Addex Therapeutics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Addex Therapeutics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Addex Therapeutics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Addex Therapeutics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Addex Therapeutics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Addex Therapeutics Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Addex Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Addex Stock, please use our How to Invest in Addex Therapeutics guide.
You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Addex Therapeutics. If investors know Addex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Addex Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(21.72)
Revenue Per Share
1.2
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.82)
Return On Assets
(0.62)
Return On Equity
(1.26)
The market value of Addex Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Addex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Addex Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Addex Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Addex Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Addex Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Addex Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Addex Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Addex Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.