The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Atmos Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 425.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.73. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Atmos Energy's stock prices and determine the direction of Atmos Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Atmos Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.
Atmos
A four-period moving average forecast model for Atmos Energy is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.
Atmos Energy 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 11th of January 2025
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Atmos Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 425.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.96, mean absolute percentage error of 17.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 113.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atmos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atmos Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Atmos Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
Atmos Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Atmos Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atmos Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 424.99 and 426.77, respectively. We have considered Atmos Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atmos Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atmos Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AIC
Akaike Information Criteria
115.4325
Bias
Arithmetic mean of the errors
-1.9346
MAD
Mean absolute deviation
1.9609
MAPE
Mean absolute percentage error
0.0048
SAE
Sum of the absolute errors
113.73
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Atmos Energy. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Atmos Energy and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions
Predictive Modules for Atmos Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atmos Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Atmos Energy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Atmos Energy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Atmos Energy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Atmos Energy.
Other Forecasting Options for Atmos Energy
For every potential investor in Atmos, whether a beginner or expert, Atmos Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atmos Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atmos. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atmos Energy's price trends.
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atmos Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atmos Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atmos Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Atmos Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Atmos Energy's current price.
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atmos Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atmos Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atmos Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atmos Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
The analysis of Atmos Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atmos Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting atmos stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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