Macauto Industrial Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| 9951 Stock | TWD 55.20 0.20 0.36% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macauto Industrial Co on the next trading day is expected to be 55.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.76. Macauto Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Macauto |
Macauto Industrial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macauto Industrial Co on the next trading day is expected to be 55.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Macauto Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Macauto Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Macauto Industrial Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Macauto Industrial | Macauto Industrial Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Macauto Industrial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Macauto Industrial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Macauto Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.10 and 56.05, respectively. We have considered Macauto Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Macauto Industrial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Macauto Industrial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0808 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3857 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0065 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.7572 |
Predictive Modules for Macauto Industrial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macauto Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Macauto Industrial
For every potential investor in Macauto, whether a beginner or expert, Macauto Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Macauto Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Macauto. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Macauto Industrial's price trends.Macauto Industrial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Macauto Industrial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Macauto Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Macauto Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Macauto Industrial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Macauto Industrial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Macauto Industrial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Macauto Industrial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Macauto Industrial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Macauto Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Macauto Industrial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Macauto Industrial Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Macauto Industrial Risk Indicators
The analysis of Macauto Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Macauto Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting macauto stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5838 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9636 | |||
| Variance | 0.9285 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Macauto Industrial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Macauto Industrial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Macauto Industrial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Macauto Stock
Moving against Macauto Stock
| 0.93 | 2345 | Accton Technology Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.88 | 2379 | Realtek Semiconductor | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | 2618 | Eva Airways Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.86 | 2850 | Shinkong Insurance | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | 1536 | Hota Industrial Mfg | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Macauto Industrial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Macauto Industrial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Macauto Industrial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Macauto Industrial Co to buy it.
The correlation of Macauto Industrial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Macauto Industrial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Macauto Industrial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Macauto Industrial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Macauto Stock Analysis
When running Macauto Industrial's price analysis, check to measure Macauto Industrial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Macauto Industrial is operating at the current time. Most of Macauto Industrial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Macauto Industrial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Macauto Industrial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Macauto Industrial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.