Elis SA Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

7EL Stock  EUR 18.15  0.58  3.10%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elis SA on the next trading day is expected to be 18.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.14. Elis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Elis SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Elis SA - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Elis SA prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Elis SA price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Elis SA.

Elis SA Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Elis SA on the next trading day is expected to be 18.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Elis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Elis SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Elis SA Stock Forecast Pattern

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Elis SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Elis SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Elis SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.20 and 19.91, respectively. We have considered Elis SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.15
18.05
Expected Value
19.91
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Elis SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Elis SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0255
MADMean absolute deviation0.2906
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0145
SAESum of the absolute errors17.1446
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Elis SA observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Elis SA observations.

Predictive Modules for Elis SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elis SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.2918.1520.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.2216.0819.97
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Elis SA

For every potential investor in Elis, whether a beginner or expert, Elis SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Elis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Elis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Elis SA's price trends.

Elis SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Elis SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Elis SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Elis SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Elis SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Elis SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Elis SA's current price.

Elis SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Elis SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Elis SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Elis SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Elis SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Elis SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Elis SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Elis SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting elis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Elis Stock

Elis SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Elis Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Elis with respect to the benefits of owning Elis SA security.