Merck Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

6MK Stock  EUR 95.80  1.30  1.34%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merck Co on the next trading day is expected to be 98.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.05. Merck Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Merck's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Merck is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Merck Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Merck Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Merck Co on the next trading day is expected to be 98.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.26, mean absolute percentage error of 2.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.05.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Merck Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Merck's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Merck Stock Forecast Pattern

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Merck Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Merck's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Merck's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 97.63 and 100.19, respectively. We have considered Merck's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
95.80
98.91
Expected Value
100.19
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Merck stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Merck stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.9174
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.2631
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0128
SAESum of the absolute errors77.0491
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Merck Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Merck. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Merck

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
94.5295.8097.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
86.2297.3898.66
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
93.2495.5797.91
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Merck

For every potential investor in Merck, whether a beginner or expert, Merck's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Merck Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Merck. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Merck's price trends.

Merck Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Merck stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Merck could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Merck by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Merck Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Merck's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Merck's current price.

Merck Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Merck stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Merck shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Merck stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Merck Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Merck Risk Indicators

The analysis of Merck's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Merck's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting merck stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in Merck Stock

Merck financial ratios help investors to determine whether Merck Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Merck with respect to the benefits of owning Merck security.