AUPU Home Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

603551 Stock   11.27  0.03  0.27%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of AUPU Home Style on the next trading day is expected to be 11.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.25. AUPU Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AUPU Home stock prices and determine the direction of AUPU Home Style's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AUPU Home's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, AUPU Home's Retained Earnings are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Inventory is expected to grow to about 211.6 M, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 2.2 B.
A four-period moving average forecast model for AUPU Home Style is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

AUPU Home 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of AUPU Home Style on the next trading day is expected to be 11.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.11, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AUPU Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AUPU Home's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AUPU Home Stock Forecast Pattern

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AUPU Home Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AUPU Home's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AUPU Home's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.87 and 13.61, respectively. We have considered AUPU Home's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.27
11.24
Expected Value
13.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AUPU Home stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AUPU Home stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.5375
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0814
MADMean absolute deviation0.2325
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0221
SAESum of the absolute errors13.25
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of AUPU Home. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for AUPU Home Style and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for AUPU Home

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AUPU Home Style. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.9011.2713.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.639.0011.37
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.6111.0711.53
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AUPU Home. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AUPU Home's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AUPU Home's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AUPU Home Style.

Other Forecasting Options for AUPU Home

For every potential investor in AUPU, whether a beginner or expert, AUPU Home's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AUPU Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AUPU. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AUPU Home's price trends.

AUPU Home Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AUPU Home stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AUPU Home could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AUPU Home by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AUPU Home Style Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AUPU Home's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AUPU Home's current price.

AUPU Home Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AUPU Home stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AUPU Home shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AUPU Home stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AUPU Home Style entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

AUPU Home Risk Indicators

The analysis of AUPU Home's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AUPU Home's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aupu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in AUPU Stock

AUPU Home financial ratios help investors to determine whether AUPU Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AUPU with respect to the benefits of owning AUPU Home security.