Zhangjiagang Elegant Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

603221 Stock   11.02  0.20  1.78%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Zhangjiagang Elegant Home on the next trading day is expected to be 11.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.77. Zhangjiagang Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Zhangjiagang Elegant stock prices and determine the direction of Zhangjiagang Elegant Home's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Zhangjiagang Elegant's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Zhangjiagang Elegant's Other Current Liabilities is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Non Current Liabilities Total is expected to grow to about 116.7 M, whereas Total Assets are forecasted to decline to about 1.6 B.
Triple exponential smoothing for Zhangjiagang Elegant - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Zhangjiagang Elegant prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Zhangjiagang Elegant price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Zhangjiagang Elegant Home.

Zhangjiagang Elegant Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Zhangjiagang Elegant Home on the next trading day is expected to be 11.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.1, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.77.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Zhangjiagang Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Zhangjiagang Elegant's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Zhangjiagang Elegant Stock Forecast Pattern

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Zhangjiagang Elegant Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Zhangjiagang Elegant's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Zhangjiagang Elegant's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.03 and 14.12, respectively. We have considered Zhangjiagang Elegant's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
11.02
11.08
Expected Value
14.12
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Zhangjiagang Elegant stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Zhangjiagang Elegant stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.052
MADMean absolute deviation0.2128
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0219
SAESum of the absolute errors12.7673
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Zhangjiagang Elegant observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Zhangjiagang Elegant Home observations.

Predictive Modules for Zhangjiagang Elegant

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Zhangjiagang Elegant Home. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
7.9911.0214.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.678.7011.73
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Zhangjiagang Elegant. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Zhangjiagang Elegant's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Zhangjiagang Elegant's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Zhangjiagang Elegant Home.

Other Forecasting Options for Zhangjiagang Elegant

For every potential investor in Zhangjiagang, whether a beginner or expert, Zhangjiagang Elegant's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Zhangjiagang Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Zhangjiagang. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Zhangjiagang Elegant's price trends.

Zhangjiagang Elegant Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Zhangjiagang Elegant stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Zhangjiagang Elegant could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Zhangjiagang Elegant by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Zhangjiagang Elegant Home Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Zhangjiagang Elegant's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Zhangjiagang Elegant's current price.

Zhangjiagang Elegant Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Zhangjiagang Elegant stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Zhangjiagang Elegant shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Zhangjiagang Elegant stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Zhangjiagang Elegant Home entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Zhangjiagang Elegant Risk Indicators

The analysis of Zhangjiagang Elegant's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Zhangjiagang Elegant's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting zhangjiagang stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Zhangjiagang Stock

Zhangjiagang Elegant financial ratios help investors to determine whether Zhangjiagang Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Zhangjiagang with respect to the benefits of owning Zhangjiagang Elegant security.