Shaanxi Construction Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

600984 Stock   3.41  0.01  0.29%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Shaanxi Construction Machinery on the next trading day is expected to be 3.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.64. Shaanxi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shaanxi Construction stock prices and determine the direction of Shaanxi Construction Machinery's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Shaanxi Construction's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Shaanxi Construction's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 7.6 B, whereas Other Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 47.2 M.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Shaanxi Construction price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Shaanxi Construction Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Shaanxi Construction Machinery on the next trading day is expected to be 3.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.64.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shaanxi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shaanxi Construction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shaanxi Construction Stock Forecast Pattern

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Shaanxi Construction Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shaanxi Construction's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shaanxi Construction's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.30, respectively. We have considered Shaanxi Construction's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.41
3.92
Expected Value
8.30
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shaanxi Construction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shaanxi Construction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5872
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2522
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0743
SAESum of the absolute errors15.6373
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Shaanxi Construction Machinery historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Shaanxi Construction

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shaanxi Construction. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.173.477.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.142.867.25
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Shaanxi Construction. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Shaanxi Construction's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Shaanxi Construction's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Shaanxi Construction.

Other Forecasting Options for Shaanxi Construction

For every potential investor in Shaanxi, whether a beginner or expert, Shaanxi Construction's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shaanxi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shaanxi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shaanxi Construction's price trends.

Shaanxi Construction Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shaanxi Construction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shaanxi Construction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shaanxi Construction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shaanxi Construction Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shaanxi Construction's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shaanxi Construction's current price.

Shaanxi Construction Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shaanxi Construction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shaanxi Construction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shaanxi Construction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shaanxi Construction Machinery entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shaanxi Construction Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shaanxi Construction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shaanxi Construction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shaanxi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Shaanxi Stock

Shaanxi Construction financial ratios help investors to determine whether Shaanxi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Shaanxi with respect to the benefits of owning Shaanxi Construction security.