Hengli Petrochemical Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

600346 Stock   15.26  0.14  0.91%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Hengli Petrochemical Co on the next trading day is expected to be 15.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.61. Hengli Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hengli Petrochemical stock prices and determine the direction of Hengli Petrochemical Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Hengli Petrochemical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Hengli Petrochemical's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 130.1 B, whereas Other Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 2.8 B.
A two period moving average forecast for Hengli Petrochemical is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Hengli Petrochemical Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Hengli Petrochemical Co on the next trading day is expected to be 15.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.61.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hengli Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hengli Petrochemical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hengli Petrochemical Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Oct 11Oct 21Oct 29Nov 6Nov 14Nov 22Dec 2Dec 10Dec 18Dec 2614.014.515.015.516.016.5
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Hengli Petrochemical Hengli Petrochemical forecast
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Hengli Petrochemical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hengli Petrochemical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hengli Petrochemical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.21 and 17.31, respectively. We have considered Hengli Petrochemical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.26
15.26
Expected Value
17.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hengli Petrochemical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hengli Petrochemical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.5121
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0254
MADMean absolute deviation0.2768
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0185
SAESum of the absolute errors16.605
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Hengli Petrochemical Co price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Hengli Petrochemical. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Hengli Petrochemical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hengli Petrochemical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
13.2215.2717.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
13.7515.8017.85
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hengli Petrochemical. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hengli Petrochemical's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hengli Petrochemical's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hengli Petrochemical.

Other Forecasting Options for Hengli Petrochemical

For every potential investor in Hengli, whether a beginner or expert, Hengli Petrochemical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hengli Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hengli. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hengli Petrochemical's price trends.

Hengli Petrochemical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hengli Petrochemical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hengli Petrochemical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hengli Petrochemical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hengli Petrochemical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hengli Petrochemical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hengli Petrochemical's current price.

Hengli Petrochemical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hengli Petrochemical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hengli Petrochemical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hengli Petrochemical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hengli Petrochemical Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hengli Petrochemical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hengli Petrochemical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hengli Petrochemical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hengli stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Hengli Stock

Hengli Petrochemical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Hengli Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Hengli with respect to the benefits of owning Hengli Petrochemical security.

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