Shanghai Commercial Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

5876 Stock  TWD 40.10  0.25  0.62%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Shanghai Commercial Savings on the next trading day is expected to be 40.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.46. Shanghai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Shanghai Commercial Savings is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Shanghai Commercial 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Shanghai Commercial Savings on the next trading day is expected to be 40.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.46.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shanghai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shanghai Commercial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shanghai Commercial Stock Forecast Pattern

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Shanghai Commercial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shanghai Commercial's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shanghai Commercial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 38.92 and 41.43, respectively. We have considered Shanghai Commercial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
40.10
40.17
Expected Value
41.43
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shanghai Commercial stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shanghai Commercial stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.6319
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.058
MADMean absolute deviation0.4735
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0121
SAESum of the absolute errors27.4625
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Shanghai Commercial. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Shanghai Commercial Savings and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Shanghai Commercial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shanghai Commercial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
38.8540.1041.35
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
38.1939.4440.69
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
37.1439.1141.08
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Shanghai Commercial

For every potential investor in Shanghai, whether a beginner or expert, Shanghai Commercial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shanghai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shanghai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shanghai Commercial's price trends.

Shanghai Commercial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shanghai Commercial stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shanghai Commercial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shanghai Commercial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shanghai Commercial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Shanghai Commercial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Shanghai Commercial's current price.

Shanghai Commercial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shanghai Commercial stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shanghai Commercial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shanghai Commercial stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shanghai Commercial Savings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shanghai Commercial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shanghai Commercial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shanghai Commercial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shanghai stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Shanghai Stock Analysis

When running Shanghai Commercial's price analysis, check to measure Shanghai Commercial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Shanghai Commercial is operating at the current time. Most of Shanghai Commercial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Shanghai Commercial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Shanghai Commercial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Shanghai Commercial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.