Lian Hwa Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

1231 Stock  TWD 122.00  1.50  1.24%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lian Hwa Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 122.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.00. Lian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Lian Hwa simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Lian Hwa Foods are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Lian Hwa Foods prices get older.

Lian Hwa Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Lian Hwa Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 122.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.92, mean absolute percentage error of 1.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lian Hwa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Lian Hwa Stock Forecast Pattern

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Lian Hwa Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Lian Hwa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lian Hwa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 120.87 and 123.13, respectively. We have considered Lian Hwa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
122.00
120.87
Downside
122.00
Expected Value
123.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lian Hwa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lian Hwa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7478
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2667
MADMean absolute deviation0.9167
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0081
SAESum of the absolute errors55.0
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Lian Hwa Foods forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Lian Hwa observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Lian Hwa

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lian Hwa Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
120.86122.00123.14
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
109.80138.80139.94
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
117.86119.73121.60
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Lian Hwa

For every potential investor in Lian, whether a beginner or expert, Lian Hwa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lian Hwa's price trends.

Lian Hwa Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lian Hwa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lian Hwa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lian Hwa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Lian Hwa Foods Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Lian Hwa's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Lian Hwa's current price.

Lian Hwa Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lian Hwa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lian Hwa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lian Hwa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lian Hwa Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Lian Hwa Risk Indicators

The analysis of Lian Hwa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lian Hwa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Lian Stock Analysis

When running Lian Hwa's price analysis, check to measure Lian Hwa's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lian Hwa is operating at the current time. Most of Lian Hwa's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lian Hwa's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lian Hwa's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lian Hwa to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.