UBS IF Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

0P00019WES   243.93  0.53  0.22%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UBS IF Eqs on the next trading day is expected to be 243.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.56. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast UBS IF's fund prices and determine the direction of UBS IF Eqs's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
UBS IF simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for UBS IF Eqs are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as UBS IF Eqs prices get older.

UBS IF Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of UBS IF Eqs on the next trading day is expected to be 243.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54, mean absolute percentage error of 5.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 92.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict UBS Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that UBS IF's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

UBS IF Fund Forecast Pattern

UBS IF Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting UBS IF's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. UBS IF's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 242.94 and 244.92, respectively. We have considered UBS IF's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
243.93
242.94
Downside
243.93
Expected Value
244.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of UBS IF fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent UBS IF fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.8909
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.343
MADMean absolute deviation1.5427
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0066
SAESum of the absolute errors92.56
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting UBS IF Eqs forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent UBS IF observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for UBS IF

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UBS IF Eqs. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for UBS IF

For every potential investor in UBS, whether a beginner or expert, UBS IF's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. UBS Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in UBS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying UBS IF's price trends.

UBS IF Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with UBS IF fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of UBS IF could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing UBS IF by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

UBS IF Eqs Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of UBS IF's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of UBS IF's current price.

UBS IF Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how UBS IF fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading UBS IF shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying UBS IF fund market strength indicators, traders can identify UBS IF Eqs entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

UBS IF Risk Indicators

The analysis of UBS IF's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in UBS IF's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ubs fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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