Coronation Property Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

0P000161AC   42.23  0.28  0.67%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Coronation Property Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 41.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.95. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Coronation Property's fund prices and determine the direction of Coronation Property Equity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
A naive forecasting model for Coronation Property is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Coronation Property Equity value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Coronation Property Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Coronation Property Equity on the next trading day is expected to be 41.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.95.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Coronation Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Coronation Property's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Coronation Property Fund Forecast Pattern

Coronation Property Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Coronation Property's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Coronation Property's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.10 and 42.65, respectively. We have considered Coronation Property's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
42.23
41.87
Expected Value
42.65
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Coronation Property fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Coronation Property fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.0273
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2778
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0067
SAESum of the absolute errors16.9485
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Coronation Property Equity. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Coronation Property. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Coronation Property

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coronation Property. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Coronation Property

For every potential investor in Coronation, whether a beginner or expert, Coronation Property's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Coronation Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Coronation. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Coronation Property's price trends.

Coronation Property Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Coronation Property fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Coronation Property could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Coronation Property by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Coronation Property Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Coronation Property's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Coronation Property's current price.

Coronation Property Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Coronation Property fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Coronation Property shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Coronation Property fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Coronation Property Equity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Coronation Property Risk Indicators

The analysis of Coronation Property's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Coronation Property's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting coronation fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Portfolio Dashboard
Portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device