Nordea 1 Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

0P0000YK6S   403.70  2.19  0.54%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nordea 1 on the next trading day is expected to be 403.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 145.67. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Nordea 1's fund prices and determine the direction of Nordea 1 's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
Nordea 1 simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Nordea 1 are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Nordea 1 prices get older.

Nordea 1 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Nordea 1 on the next trading day is expected to be 403.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.43, mean absolute percentage error of 9.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 145.67.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nordea Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nordea 1's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Nordea 1 Fund Forecast Pattern

Nordea 1 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Nordea 1's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nordea 1's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 402.93 and 404.47, respectively. We have considered Nordea 1's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
403.70
402.93
Downside
403.70
Expected Value
404.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nordea 1 fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nordea 1 fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5541
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.3912
MADMean absolute deviation2.4278
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0062
SAESum of the absolute errors145.67
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Nordea 1 forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Nordea 1 observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Nordea 1

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nordea 1. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Nordea 1

For every potential investor in Nordea, whether a beginner or expert, Nordea 1's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nordea Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nordea. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nordea 1's price trends.

Nordea 1 Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nordea 1 fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nordea 1 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nordea 1 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Nordea 1 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nordea 1's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nordea 1's current price.

Nordea 1 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nordea 1 fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nordea 1 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nordea 1 fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Nordea 1 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Nordea 1 Risk Indicators

The analysis of Nordea 1's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nordea 1's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nordea fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Nordea 1

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Nordea 1 position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Nordea 1 will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Nordea Fund

  0.91IE00B065CV35 Franklin Floating RatePairCorr
  0.92IE0032578035 Franklin Floating RatePairCorr
  0.91IE00B000C709 Franklin Floating RatePairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Nordea 1 could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Nordea 1 when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Nordea 1 - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Nordea 1 to buy it.
The correlation of Nordea 1 is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Nordea 1 moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Nordea 1 moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Nordea 1 can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
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