Manulife Dividend Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

0P0000VUYE  CAD 17.05  0.01  0.06%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Manulife Dividend Income on the next trading day is expected to be 17.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.66. Manulife Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Manulife Dividend simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Manulife Dividend Income are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Manulife Dividend Income prices get older.

Manulife Dividend Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Manulife Dividend Income on the next trading day is expected to be 17.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Manulife Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Manulife Dividend's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Manulife Dividend Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Manulife DividendManulife Dividend Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Manulife Dividend Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Manulife Dividend's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Manulife Dividend's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.54 and 17.56, respectively. We have considered Manulife Dividend's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.05
17.05
Expected Value
17.56
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Manulife Dividend fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Manulife Dividend fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.3645
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.021
MADMean absolute deviation0.061
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0037
SAESum of the absolute errors3.66
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Manulife Dividend Income forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Manulife Dividend observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Manulife Dividend

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manulife Dividend Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.5417.0517.56
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.3518.2318.74
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Manulife Dividend

For every potential investor in Manulife, whether a beginner or expert, Manulife Dividend's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Manulife Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Manulife. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Manulife Dividend's price trends.

Manulife Dividend Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Manulife Dividend fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Manulife Dividend could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Manulife Dividend by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Manulife Dividend Income Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Manulife Dividend's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Manulife Dividend's current price.

Manulife Dividend Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Manulife Dividend fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Manulife Dividend shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Manulife Dividend fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Manulife Dividend Income entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Manulife Dividend Risk Indicators

The analysis of Manulife Dividend's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Manulife Dividend's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting manulife fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Manulife Dividend

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Manulife Dividend position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Manulife Dividend will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Manulife Dividend could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Manulife Dividend when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Manulife Dividend - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Manulife Dividend Income to buy it.
The correlation of Manulife Dividend is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Manulife Dividend moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Manulife Dividend Income moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Manulife Dividend can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Manulife Fund

Manulife Dividend financial ratios help investors to determine whether Manulife Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Manulife with respect to the benefits of owning Manulife Dividend security.
Portfolio Backtesting
Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum