Coronation Industrial Fund Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

0P0000IR56   306.09  1.94  0.64%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Coronation Industrial on the next trading day is expected to be 306.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.76 and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.56. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Coronation Industrial's fund prices and determine the direction of Coronation Industrial's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Coronation Industrial works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Coronation Industrial Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Coronation Industrial on the next trading day is expected to be 306.31 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.76, mean absolute percentage error of 12.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 162.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Coronation Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Coronation Industrial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Coronation Industrial Fund Forecast Pattern

Coronation Industrial Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Coronation Industrial's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Coronation Industrial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 305.16 and 307.46, respectively. We have considered Coronation Industrial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
306.09
305.16
Downside
306.31
Expected Value
307.46
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Coronation Industrial fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Coronation Industrial fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.4274
MADMean absolute deviation2.7552
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0093
SAESum of the absolute errors162.5563
When Coronation Industrial prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Coronation Industrial trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Coronation Industrial observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Coronation Industrial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Coronation Industrial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Coronation Industrial

For every potential investor in Coronation, whether a beginner or expert, Coronation Industrial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Coronation Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Coronation. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Coronation Industrial's price trends.

Coronation Industrial Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Coronation Industrial fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Coronation Industrial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Coronation Industrial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Coronation Industrial Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Coronation Industrial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Coronation Industrial's current price.

Coronation Industrial Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Coronation Industrial fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Coronation Industrial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Coronation Industrial fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Coronation Industrial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Coronation Industrial Risk Indicators

The analysis of Coronation Industrial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Coronation Industrial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting coronation fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
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