Hershey Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

0J4X Stock   183.44  1.51  0.83%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hershey Co on the next trading day is expected to be 183.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 149.86. Hershey Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Hershey's Liabilities And Stockholders Equity is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Non Current Liabilities Total is likely to gain to about 5 B in 2024, whereas Property Plant And Equipment Net is likely to drop slightly above 1.8 B in 2024.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Hershey Co is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Hershey 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 14th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Hershey Co on the next trading day is expected to be 183.83 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.63, mean absolute percentage error of 16.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 149.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hershey Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hershey's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hershey Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest HersheyHershey Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Hershey Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hershey's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hershey's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 181.70 and 185.95, respectively. We have considered Hershey's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
183.44
181.70
Downside
183.83
Expected Value
185.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hershey stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hershey stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.54
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.3993
MADMean absolute deviation2.6291
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0145
SAESum of the absolute errors149.8575
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Hershey. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Hershey Co and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Hershey

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hershey. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
181.40183.52185.64
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
152.12154.24201.78
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Hershey

For every potential investor in Hershey, whether a beginner or expert, Hershey's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hershey Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hershey. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hershey's price trends.

Hershey Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hershey stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hershey could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hershey by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hershey Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hershey's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hershey's current price.

Hershey Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hershey stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hershey shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hershey stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Hershey Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hershey Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hershey's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hershey's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting hershey stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Hershey Stock Analysis

When running Hershey's price analysis, check to measure Hershey's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hershey is operating at the current time. Most of Hershey's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hershey's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hershey's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hershey to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.