Tokai Carbon Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

064760 Stock  KRW 68,800  400.00  0.58%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tokai Carbon Korea on the next trading day is expected to be 69,119 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,650 and the sum of the absolute errors of 102,302. Tokai Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Tokai Carbon stock prices and determine the direction of Tokai Carbon Korea's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Tokai Carbon's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Tokai Carbon is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Tokai Carbon Korea value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Tokai Carbon Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Tokai Carbon Korea on the next trading day is expected to be 69,119 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,650, mean absolute percentage error of 4,237,319, and the sum of the absolute errors of 102,302.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tokai Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tokai Carbon's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tokai Carbon Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Tokai CarbonTokai Carbon Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Tokai Carbon Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tokai Carbon's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tokai Carbon's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 69,117 and 69,122, respectively. We have considered Tokai Carbon's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
68,800
69,117
Downside
69,119
Expected Value
69,122
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tokai Carbon stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tokai Carbon stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria135.2078
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1650.0306
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0196
SAESum of the absolute errors102301.8952
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Tokai Carbon Korea. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Tokai Carbon. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Tokai Carbon

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tokai Carbon Korea. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
68,79868,80068,802
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
63,56563,56775,680
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
70,16171,37772,593
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tokai Carbon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tokai Carbon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tokai Carbon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Tokai Carbon Korea.

Other Forecasting Options for Tokai Carbon

For every potential investor in Tokai, whether a beginner or expert, Tokai Carbon's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tokai Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tokai. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tokai Carbon's price trends.

Tokai Carbon Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tokai Carbon stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tokai Carbon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tokai Carbon by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Tokai Carbon Korea Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tokai Carbon's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tokai Carbon's current price.

Tokai Carbon Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tokai Carbon stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tokai Carbon shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tokai Carbon stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tokai Carbon Korea entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tokai Carbon Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tokai Carbon's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tokai Carbon's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tokai stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Tokai Carbon

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Tokai Carbon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Tokai Carbon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Tokai Stock

  0.92108320 LX SemiconPairCorr

Moving against Tokai Stock

  0.58105560 KB Financial GroupPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Tokai Carbon could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Tokai Carbon when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Tokai Carbon - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Tokai Carbon Korea to buy it.
The correlation of Tokai Carbon is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Tokai Carbon moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Tokai Carbon Korea moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Tokai Carbon can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Tokai Stock

Tokai Carbon financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tokai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tokai with respect to the benefits of owning Tokai Carbon security.