Daou Technology Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

023590 Stock   17,730  290.00  1.61%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Daou Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 17,990 with a mean absolute deviation of 182.68 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10,412. Daou Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Daou Technology stock prices and determine the direction of Daou Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Daou Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Daou Technology is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Daou Technology 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 9th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Daou Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 17,990 with a mean absolute deviation of 182.68, mean absolute percentage error of 61,590, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10,412.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Daou Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Daou Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Daou Technology Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Daou TechnologyDaou Technology Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Daou Technology Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Daou Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Daou Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17,989 and 17,991, respectively. We have considered Daou Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17,730
17,989
Downside
17,990
Expected Value
17,991
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Daou Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Daou Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.7873
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -21.1842
MADMean absolute deviation182.6754
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0101
SAESum of the absolute errors10412.5
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Daou Technology. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Daou Technology and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Daou Technology

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Daou Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
17,72917,73017,731
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15,02715,02819,503
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17,45318,11518,777
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Daou Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Daou Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Daou Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Daou Technology.

Other Forecasting Options for Daou Technology

For every potential investor in Daou, whether a beginner or expert, Daou Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Daou Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Daou. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Daou Technology's price trends.

Daou Technology Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Daou Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Daou Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Daou Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Daou Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Daou Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Daou Technology's current price.

Daou Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Daou Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Daou Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Daou Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Daou Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Daou Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of Daou Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Daou Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting daou stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Daou Technology

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Daou Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Daou Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Daou Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Daou Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Daou Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Daou Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Daou Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Daou Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Daou Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Daou Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Daou Stock

Daou Technology financial ratios help investors to determine whether Daou Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Daou with respect to the benefits of owning Daou Technology security.