Macroaxis Stories

Will Biocryst Pharma (NASDAQ:BCRX) current volatility spike continue?

August 4, 2022  By Vlad Skutelnik
Macroaxis Story
Biocryst Pharma is currently generating 0.7176% in daily expected returns and assumes 4.562% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. While many risk-averse investors are getting carried away by overanalyzing healthcare space, it is reasonable to break down Biocryst Pharma. We will evaluate if Biocryst Pharma's current volatility will continue into September. The current above-average Biocryst Pharma's volatility may impact the value of the stock as we project Biocryst Pharma as currently undervalued. The real value, according to our calculations, is approaching 13.17 per share.
Published over a year ago
View all stories for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals | View All Stories

Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

This firm currently holds 593.24 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.4, implying Biocryst Pharma greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. The company has a current ratio of 5.35, suggesting that it is liquid enough and is able to pay its financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Biocryst Pharma until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Biocryst Pharma's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Biocryst Pharma sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Biocryst to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Biocryst Pharma's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to BioCryst's beta indicator, it measures the risk of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is BioCryst Pharmaceuticals's Liquidity

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance BioCryst Pharmaceuticals ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between BioCryst Pharmaceuticals's total debt and its cash.

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions. It is good to see analyst projects for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Gross Profit

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing BioCryst Pharmaceuticals previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Volatility Drivers

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals unsystematic risk is unique to BioCryst Pharmaceuticals and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in BioCryst Pharmaceuticals you can also buy TG Therapeutics. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the health care sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing BioCryst Pharmaceuticals important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in BioCryst Pharmaceuticals income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about BioCryst volatility.
Total Assets
Net Debt
Total Liab
Common Stock
Total Assets
0.710.950.93
Net Debt
0.710.880.65
Total Liab
0.950.880.89
Common Stock
0.930.650.89
Click cells to compare fundamentals

A Deeper Perspective

Biocryst Pharma reported the previous year's revenue of 157.17 M. Net Loss for the year was (184.06 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (58.9 M).

Will Biocryst Pharma growth be real after the rise?

The expected short fall is down to -3.11 as of today. Biocryst Pharma shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Biocryst Pharma further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Biocryst Pharma future alpha. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Biocryst Pharma's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Biocryst Pharma's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Biocryst Pharma Implied Volatility

Biocryst Pharma's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Biocryst Pharma stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Biocryst Pharma's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Biocryst Pharma stock will not fluctuate a lot when Biocryst Pharma's options are near their expiration.

Our Final Perspective on Biocryst Pharma

While some other entities under the biotechnology industry are still a bit expensive, Biocryst Pharma may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. All things considered, as of the 4th of August 2022, we believe that at this point, Biocryst Pharma is somewhat reliable with very high probability of bankruptcy within the next 2 years. From a slightly different point of view, the entity appears to be undervalued. Our up-to-date 90 days recommendation on the company is Strong Hold.

Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!

The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.

Try AI Portfolio Architect

Editorial Staff

Vlad Skutelnik is a Macroaxis Contributor. Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

Would you like to provide feedback on the content of this article?

You can get in touch with us directly or send us a quick note via email to editors@macroaxis.com