Smoothed US Recession Probabilities

Measurement
Percent
Indicator Type or Source
Nation Indicator
Period End Date
September 1, 2024
Clasification
Nation
 
Embargo
 
Inflation
 
Black Monday
 
Oil Shock
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
Smoothed US Recession Probabilities is an economic indicator measured in Percent. It covers the period from Friday, November 28, 1969, to Sunday, September 1, 2024, and is updated monthly. Please note, smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., "An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching," International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. For additional details, including an analysis of the performance of this model for dating business cycles in real time, see: Chauvet, M. and J. Piger, "A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods (https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/f2ed/8fac87c0c82c3d85ca64ee9846658d8810fb.pdf?_ga=2.168797348.404457612.1561570817-1723670870.1561570817)," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2008, 26, 42-49. For additional details as to why this data revises, see FAQ 3 (http://pages.uoregon.edu/jpiger/us_recession_probs.htm). Please view all Nation indicators for more information or continue to All Top Economic Indicators.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (fred.stlouisfed.org)

55-Year History of Smoothed US Recession Probabilities

The above interactive chart and the table below show the 55-year history of smoothed us recession probabilities going back to Friday, November 28, 1969. The current value is 1.02 which was updated on Sunday, September 1, 2024. Historical data is often used in econometric models to forecast future economic conditions. These forecasts can influence a wide range of decisions, from monetary policy at central banks to investment strategies at businesses and financial institutions.
Sep 1, 20241.02  
Aug 1, 20240.44  
Jul 1, 20240.42  
Jun 1, 20240.24  
May 1, 20240.16  
Apr 1, 20240.16  
Mar 1, 20240.16  
Feb 1, 20240.06  
Jan 1, 20240.4  
Dec 1, 20230.12  
Nov 1, 20230.08  
Oct 1, 20230.22  
Sep 1, 20230.12  
Aug 1, 20230.04  
Jul 1, 20230.04  
Jun 1, 20230.18  
May 1, 20230.12  
Apr 1, 20230.12  
Mar 1, 20230.28  
Feb 1, 20230.18  
Jan 1, 20230.04  
Dec 1, 20220.74  
Nov 1, 20220.84  
Oct 1, 20220.32  
Sep 1, 20220.16  
Aug 1, 20220.08  
Jul 1, 20220.0  
Jun 1, 20220.16  
May 1, 20220.24  
Apr 1, 20220.22  
Mar 1, 20220.14  
Feb 1, 20220.02  
Jan 1, 20220.08  
Dec 1, 20210.16  
Nov 1, 20210.04  
Oct 1, 20210.06  
Sep 1, 20210.44  
Aug 1, 20210.46  
Jul 1, 20210.1  
Jun 1, 20210.0  
May 1, 20210.18  
Apr 1, 20210.48  
Mar 1, 20210.0  
Feb 1, 20210.0  
Jan 1, 20210.0  
Dec 1, 20200.04  
Nov 1, 20200.16  
Oct 1, 20200.04  
Sep 1, 20200.04  
Aug 1, 20200.0  
Jul 1, 20200.02  
Jun 1, 20200.0  
May 1, 20200.04  
Apr 1, 2020100.0  
Mar 1, 2020100.0  
Feb 1, 20200.14  
Jan 1, 20200.18  
Dec 1, 20190.42  
Nov 1, 20190.5  
Oct 1, 20191.58  
Sep 1, 20191.06  
Aug 1, 20190.2  
Jul 1, 20190.42  
Jun 1, 20190.34  
May 1, 20190.44  
Apr 1, 20190.86  
Mar 1, 20190.76  
Feb 1, 20191.12  
Jan 1, 20191.02  
Dec 1, 20180.22  
Nov 1, 20180.18  
Oct 1, 20180.2  
Sep 1, 20180.26  
Aug 1, 20180.06  
Jul 1, 20180.06  
Jun 1, 20180.1  
May 1, 20180.24  
Apr 1, 20180.04  
Mar 1, 20180.08  
Feb 1, 20180.06  
Jan 1, 20180.12  
Dec 1, 20170.04  
Nov 1, 20170.0  
Oct 1, 20170.04  
Sep 1, 20170.08  
Aug 1, 20170.26  
Jul 1, 20170.2  
Jun 1, 20170.14  
May 1, 20170.1  
Apr 1, 20170.04  
Mar 1, 20170.04  
Feb 1, 20170.14  
Jan 1, 20170.24  
Dec 1, 20160.08  
Nov 1, 20160.22  
Oct 1, 20160.14  
Sep 1, 20160.08  
Aug 1, 20160.14  
Jul 1, 20160.1  
Jun 1, 20160.14  
May 1, 20160.48  
Apr 1, 20160.36  
Mar 1, 20160.76  
Feb 1, 20160.72  
Jan 1, 20160.48  
Dec 1, 20150.66  
Nov 1, 20150.9  
Oct 1, 20150.54  
Sep 1, 20150.42  
Aug 1, 20150.38  
Jul 1, 20150.2  
Jun 1, 20150.66  
May 1, 20150.68  
Apr 1, 20150.66  
Mar 1, 20150.96  
Feb 1, 20151.32  
Jan 1, 20150.88  
Dec 1, 20140.18  
Nov 1, 20140.08  
Oct 1, 20140.02  
Sep 1, 20140.02  
Aug 1, 20140.08  
Jul 1, 20140.04  
Jun 1, 20140.04  
May 1, 20140.08  
Apr 1, 20140.1  
Mar 1, 20140.02  
Feb 1, 20140.04  
Jan 1, 20140.14  
Dec 1, 20130.12  
Nov 1, 20130.06  
Oct 1, 20130.08  
Sep 1, 20130.04  
Aug 1, 20130.06  
Jul 1, 20130.2  
Jun 1, 20130.14  
May 1, 20130.06  
Apr 1, 20130.08  
Mar 1, 20130.08  
Feb 1, 20130.02  
Jan 1, 20130.04  
Dec 1, 20120.0  
Nov 1, 20120.0  
Oct 1, 20120.02  
Sep 1, 20120.08  
Aug 1, 20120.24  
Jul 1, 20120.28  
Jun 1, 20120.24  
May 1, 20120.14  
Apr 1, 20120.1  
Mar 1, 20120.26  
Feb 1, 20120.02  
Jan 1, 20120.08  
Dec 1, 20110.0  
Nov 1, 20110.12  
Oct 1, 20110.02  
Sep 1, 20110.02  
Aug 1, 20110.02  
Jul 1, 20110.0  
Jun 1, 20110.02  
May 1, 20110.18  
Apr 1, 20110.3  
Mar 1, 20110.06  
Feb 1, 20110.14  
Jan 1, 20110.06  
Dec 1, 20100.0  
Nov 1, 20100.0  
Oct 1, 20100.0  
Sep 1, 20100.02  
Aug 1, 20100.06  
Jul 1, 20100.16  
Jun 1, 20100.48  
May 1, 20100.0  
Apr 1, 20100.0  
Mar 1, 20100.02  
Feb 1, 20100.04  
Jan 1, 20100.08  
Dec 1, 20090.1  
Nov 1, 20090.06  
Oct 1, 20090.2  
Sep 1, 20090.44  
Aug 1, 20090.98  
Jul 1, 20093.42  
Jun 1, 200967.24  
May 1, 200989.9  
Apr 1, 200997.94  
Mar 1, 200999.88  
Feb 1, 200999.8  
Jan 1, 200999.98  
Dec 1, 2008100.0  
Nov 1, 200899.88  
Oct 1, 200890.56  
Sep 1, 200899.98  
Aug 1, 200899.58  
Jul 1, 200895.92  
Jun 1, 200886.86  
May 1, 200881.28  
Apr 1, 200874.42  
Mar 1, 200860.66  
Feb 1, 200844.14  
Jan 1, 200820.26  
Dec 1, 20077.48  
Nov 1, 20071.78  
Oct 1, 20071.14  
Sep 1, 20070.76  
Aug 1, 20070.66  
Jul 1, 20070.74  
Jun 1, 20070.36  
May 1, 20070.22  
Apr 1, 20070.08  
Mar 1, 20070.06  
Feb 1, 20070.0  
Jan 1, 20070.34  
Dec 1, 20060.0  
Nov 1, 20060.02  
Oct 1, 20060.1  
Sep 1, 20060.08  
Aug 1, 20060.1  
Jul 1, 20060.2  
Jun 1, 20060.2  
May 1, 20060.22  
Apr 1, 20060.22  
Mar 1, 20060.04  
Feb 1, 20060.06  
Jan 1, 20060.02  
Dec 1, 20050.06  
Nov 1, 20050.02  
Oct 1, 20050.06  
Sep 1, 20059.92  
Aug 1, 20051.66  
Jul 1, 20050.44  
Jun 1, 20050.12  
May 1, 20050.1  
Apr 1, 20050.04  
Mar 1, 20050.14  
Feb 1, 20050.02  
Jan 1, 20050.08  
Dec 1, 20040.04  
Nov 1, 20040.14  
Oct 1, 20040.04  
Sep 1, 20040.04  
Aug 1, 20040.1  
Jul 1, 20040.08  
Jun 1, 20040.96  
May 1, 20040.1  
Apr 1, 20040.06  
Mar 1, 20040.06  
Feb 1, 20040.02  
Jan 1, 20040.14  
Dec 1, 20030.2  
Nov 1, 20030.02  
Oct 1, 20030.02  
Sep 1, 20030.04  
Aug 1, 20030.14  
Jul 1, 20030.1  
Jun 1, 20030.08  
May 1, 20030.22  
Apr 1, 20030.48  
Mar 1, 20030.76  
Feb 1, 20030.9  
Jan 1, 20030.54  
Dec 1, 20021.06  
Nov 1, 20020.34  
Oct 1, 20020.7  
Sep 1, 20020.62  
Aug 1, 20020.42  
Jul 1, 20020.76  
Jun 1, 20020.28  
May 1, 20020.36  
Apr 1, 20020.44  
Mar 1, 20020.86  
Feb 1, 20022.08  
Jan 1, 20023.44  
Dec 1, 20018.78  
Nov 1, 200120.18  
Oct 1, 200125.0  
Sep 1, 200132.5  
Aug 1, 200132.32  
Jul 1, 200133.94  
Jun 1, 200135.02  
May 1, 200134.16  
Apr 1, 200134.32  
Mar 1, 200128.44  
Feb 1, 200121.94  
Jan 1, 200116.78  
Dec 1, 20008.94  
Nov 1, 20004.92  
Oct 1, 20003.54  
Sep 1, 20001.02  
Aug 1, 20000.82  
Jul 1, 20000.48  
Jun 1, 20000.4  
May 1, 20000.3  
Apr 1, 20000.06  
Mar 1, 20000.02  
Feb 1, 20000.1  
Jan 1, 20000.04  
Dec 1, 19990.02  
Nov 1, 19990.02  
Oct 1, 19990.0  
Sep 1, 19990.06  
Aug 1, 19990.04  
Jul 1, 19990.02  
Jun 1, 19990.08  
May 1, 19990.0  
Apr 1, 19990.04  
Mar 1, 19990.08  
Feb 1, 19990.0  
Jan 1, 19990.0  
Dec 1, 19980.0  
Nov 1, 19980.04  
Oct 1, 19980.0  
Sep 1, 19980.0  
Aug 1, 19980.0  
Jul 1, 19980.3  
Jun 1, 19980.52  
May 1, 19980.0  
Apr 1, 19980.04  
Mar 1, 19980.04  
Feb 1, 19980.02  
Jan 1, 19980.02  
Dec 1, 19970.0  
Nov 1, 19970.02  
Oct 1, 19970.0  
Sep 1, 19970.0  
Aug 1, 19970.06  
Jul 1, 19970.02  
Jun 1, 19970.0  
May 1, 19970.0  
Apr 1, 19970.06  
Mar 1, 19970.02  
Feb 1, 19970.0  
Jan 1, 19970.02  
Dec 1, 19960.02  
Nov 1, 19960.0  
Oct 1, 19960.0  
Sep 1, 19960.02  
Aug 1, 19960.08  
Jul 1, 19960.14  
Jun 1, 19960.04  
May 1, 19960.02  
Apr 1, 19960.08  
Mar 1, 19960.1  
Feb 1, 19960.0  
Jan 1, 19960.3  
Dec 1, 19950.14  
Nov 1, 19950.1  
Oct 1, 19950.1  
Sep 1, 19950.06  
Aug 1, 19950.02  
Jul 1, 19950.18  
Jun 1, 19950.02  
May 1, 19950.14  
Apr 1, 19950.22  
Mar 1, 19950.16  
Feb 1, 19950.2  
Jan 1, 19950.06  
Dec 1, 19940.0  
Nov 1, 19940.0  
Oct 1, 19940.0  
Sep 1, 19940.02  
Aug 1, 19940.0  
Jul 1, 19940.02  
Jun 1, 19940.02  
May 1, 19940.08  
Apr 1, 19940.0  
Mar 1, 19940.04  
Feb 1, 19940.04  
Jan 1, 19940.02  
Dec 1, 19930.02  
Nov 1, 19930.0  
Oct 1, 19930.0  
Sep 1, 19930.0  
Aug 1, 19930.04  
Jul 1, 19930.06  
Jun 1, 19930.08  
May 1, 19930.2  
Apr 1, 19930.14  
Mar 1, 19930.92  
Feb 1, 19930.04  
Jan 1, 19930.02  
Dec 1, 19920.02  
Nov 1, 19920.02  
Oct 1, 19920.04  
Sep 1, 19920.14  
Aug 1, 19920.46  
Jul 1, 19920.02  
Jun 1, 19920.04  
May 1, 19920.08  
Apr 1, 19920.04  
Mar 1, 19920.06  
Feb 1, 19920.1  
Jan 1, 19920.16  
Dec 1, 19910.66  
Nov 1, 19910.6  
Oct 1, 19910.54  
Sep 1, 19910.26  
Aug 1, 19910.4  
Jul 1, 19910.36  
Jun 1, 19910.3  
May 1, 19910.72  
Apr 1, 19914.74  
Mar 1, 199135.08  
Feb 1, 199152.16  
Jan 1, 199159.64  
Dec 1, 199061.48  
Nov 1, 199063.3  
Oct 1, 199059.3  
Sep 1, 199038.42  
Aug 1, 199019.26  
Jul 1, 199010.22  
Jun 1, 19902.9  
May 1, 19901.54  
Apr 1, 19901.4  
Mar 1, 19900.46  
Feb 1, 19900.12  
Jan 1, 19900.22  
Dec 1, 19890.28  
Nov 1, 19890.16  
Oct 1, 19890.32  
Sep 1, 19890.36  
Aug 1, 19890.2  
Jul 1, 19891.12  
Jun 1, 19891.08  
May 1, 19891.4  
Apr 1, 19890.9  
Mar 1, 19890.58  
Feb 1, 19890.64  
Jan 1, 19890.22  
Dec 1, 19880.02  
Nov 1, 19880.0  
Oct 1, 19880.04  
Sep 1, 19880.06  
Aug 1, 19880.02  
Jul 1, 19880.06  
Jun 1, 19880.02  
May 1, 19880.1  
Apr 1, 19880.02  
Mar 1, 19880.0  
Feb 1, 19880.0  
Jan 1, 19880.4  
Dec 1, 19870.06  
Nov 1, 19870.1  
Oct 1, 19870.0  
Sep 1, 19870.02  
Aug 1, 19870.0  
Jul 1, 19870.02  
Jun 1, 19870.08  
May 1, 19870.04  
Apr 1, 19870.02  
Mar 1, 19870.0  
Feb 1, 19870.0  
Jan 1, 19870.88  
Dec 1, 19860.04  
Nov 1, 19860.02  
Oct 1, 19860.08  
Sep 1, 19860.04  
Aug 1, 19860.04  
Jul 1, 19860.04  
Jun 1, 19860.32  
May 1, 19860.1  
Apr 1, 19860.06  
Mar 1, 19860.18  
Feb 1, 19860.42  
Jan 1, 19860.04  
Dec 1, 19850.02  
Nov 1, 19850.02  
Oct 1, 19850.22  
Sep 1, 19850.04  
Aug 1, 19850.02  
Jul 1, 19850.18  
Jun 1, 19850.24  
May 1, 19850.04  
Apr 1, 19850.2  
Mar 1, 19850.02  
Feb 1, 19850.08  
Jan 1, 19850.14  
Dec 1, 19840.14  
Nov 1, 19840.0  
Oct 1, 19840.08  
Sep 1, 19840.12  
Aug 1, 19840.14  
Jul 1, 19840.08  
Jun 1, 19840.0  
May 1, 19840.02  
Apr 1, 19840.0  
Mar 1, 19840.04  
Feb 1, 19840.02  
Jan 1, 19840.0  
Dec 1, 19830.0  
Nov 1, 19830.04  
Oct 1, 19830.0  
Sep 1, 19830.0  
Aug 1, 19830.12  
Jul 1, 19830.0  
Jun 1, 19830.02  
May 1, 19830.0  
Apr 1, 19830.02  
Mar 1, 19830.06  
Feb 1, 19831.8  
Jan 1, 19830.74  
Dec 1, 198215.48  
Nov 1, 198240.66  
Oct 1, 198274.44  
Sep 1, 198277.24  
Aug 1, 198280.66  
Jul 1, 198281.66  
Jun 1, 198281.0  
May 1, 198278.02  
Apr 1, 198275.12  
Mar 1, 198262.24  
Feb 1, 198212.78  
Jan 1, 198293.8  
Dec 1, 198196.1  
Nov 1, 198196.12  
Oct 1, 198193.94  
Sep 1, 198182.9  
Aug 1, 198148.14  
Jul 1, 19813.92  
Jun 1, 19811.72  
May 1, 19811.5  
Apr 1, 19811.9  
Mar 1, 19811.8  
Feb 1, 19812.9  
Jan 1, 19813.56  
Dec 1, 19800.54  
Nov 1, 19800.08  
Oct 1, 19800.06  
Sep 1, 19800.06  
Aug 1, 19800.44  
Jul 1, 198033.5  
Jun 1, 198088.3  
May 1, 198099.62  
Apr 1, 198099.56  
Mar 1, 198087.62  
Feb 1, 198040.54  
Jan 1, 19808.24  
Dec 1, 19795.1  
Nov 1, 19793.22  
Oct 1, 19792.28  
Sep 1, 19792.54  
Aug 1, 19793.12  
Jul 1, 19792.58  
Jun 1, 19791.58  
May 1, 19791.16  
Apr 1, 197929.74  
Mar 1, 19791.18  
Feb 1, 19790.86  
Jan 1, 19791.52  
Dec 1, 19780.24  
Nov 1, 19780.08  
Oct 1, 19780.02  
Sep 1, 19780.02  
Aug 1, 19780.08  
Jul 1, 19780.32  
Jun 1, 19780.08  
May 1, 19780.16  
Apr 1, 19780.0  
Mar 1, 19780.0  
Feb 1, 19780.08  
Jan 1, 197814.02  
Dec 1, 19771.0  
Nov 1, 19770.04  
Oct 1, 19770.0  
Sep 1, 19770.0  
Aug 1, 19770.06  
Jul 1, 19770.04  
Jun 1, 19770.0  
May 1, 19770.02  
Apr 1, 19770.0  
Mar 1, 19770.0  
Feb 1, 19770.0  
Jan 1, 19770.5  
Dec 1, 19760.0  
Nov 1, 19760.0  
Oct 1, 19760.12  
Sep 1, 19760.02  
Aug 1, 19760.0  
Jul 1, 19760.0  
Jun 1, 19760.04  
May 1, 19760.08  
Apr 1, 19760.02  
Mar 1, 19760.06  
Feb 1, 19760.02  
Jan 1, 19760.0  
Dec 1, 19750.0  
Nov 1, 19750.04  
Oct 1, 19750.08  
Sep 1, 19750.02  
Aug 1, 19750.0  
Jul 1, 19750.02  
Jun 1, 19750.54  
May 1, 19752.6  
Apr 1, 197518.24  
Mar 1, 197593.28  
Feb 1, 197599.7  
Jan 1, 197599.84  
Dec 1, 1974100.0  
Nov 1, 1974100.0  
Oct 1, 197494.46  
Sep 1, 197484.42  
Aug 1, 197479.56  
Jul 1, 197447.54  
Jun 1, 197437.46  
May 1, 197425.78  
Apr 1, 197426.44  
Mar 1, 197427.82  
Feb 1, 197430.0  
Jan 1, 197434.42  
Dec 1, 197331.54  
Nov 1, 19731.2  
Oct 1, 19730.04  
Sep 1, 19730.04  
Aug 1, 19730.16  
Jul 1, 19730.0  
Jun 1, 19730.08  
May 1, 19730.08  
Apr 1, 19730.42  
Mar 1, 19730.42  
Feb 1, 19730.02  
Jan 1, 19730.0  
Dec 1, 19720.0  
Nov 1, 19720.0  
Oct 1, 19720.0  
Sep 1, 19720.0  
Aug 1, 19720.0  
Jul 1, 19720.14  
Jun 1, 19720.0  
May 1, 19720.0  
Apr 1, 19720.0  
Mar 1, 19720.0  
Feb 1, 19720.04  
Jan 1, 19720.0  
Dec 1, 19710.0  
Nov 1, 19710.0  
Oct 1, 19710.02  
Sep 1, 19710.0  
Aug 1, 19710.06  
Jul 1, 19710.44  
Jun 1, 19710.16  
May 1, 19710.04  
Apr 1, 19710.04  
Mar 1, 19710.48  
Feb 1, 19711.5  
Jan 1, 19710.14  
Dec 1, 19700.0  
Nov 1, 197033.02  
Oct 1, 197085.16  
Sep 1, 197076.4  
Aug 1, 197056.96  
Jul 1, 197039.96  
Jun 1, 197039.16  
May 1, 197041.22  
Apr 1, 197043.44  
Mar 1, 197040.56  
Feb 1, 197040.44  
Jan 1, 197051.32  
Dec 1, 196940.5  
Nov 1, 196936.66  
Oct 1, 19697.12  
Sep 1, 19694.24  
Aug 1, 19690.62  
Jul 1, 19690.18  
Jun 1, 19690.04  
May 1, 19690.02  
Apr 1, 19690.12  
Mar 1, 19690.02  
Feb 1, 19690.02  
Jan 1, 19690.02  
Dec 1, 19680.1  
Nov 1, 19680.02  
Oct 1, 19680.02  
Sep 1, 19680.02  
Aug 1, 19680.06  
Jul 1, 19680.02  
Jun 1, 19680.0  
May 1, 19680.02  
Apr 1, 19680.1  
Mar 1, 19680.16  
Feb 1, 19680.1  
Jan 1, 19681.48  
Dec 1, 19670.02  
Nov 1, 19670.0  
Oct 1, 19670.04  
Sep 1, 19670.28  
Aug 1, 19670.04  
Jul 1, 19670.3  
Jun 1, 19670.66  

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