Vanguard Health Care Etf Price Prediction
| VHT Etf | USD 272.24 0.86 0.32% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
27
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Vanguard Health hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vanguard Health Care from the perspective of Vanguard Health response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Vanguard Health using Vanguard Health's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Vanguard using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Vanguard Health's stock price.
Vanguard Health Implied Volatility | 0.31 |
Vanguard Health's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Vanguard Health Care stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Vanguard Health's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Vanguard Health stock will not fluctuate a lot when Vanguard Health's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vanguard Health to buy its etf at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vanguard because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell etfs at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Vanguard Health after-hype prediction price | USD 272.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Vanguard contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Vanguard Health Care will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Vanguard Health trading at USD 272.24, that is roughly USD 0.0527 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Vanguard Health's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Vanguard Health Care options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Vanguard |
Vanguard Health After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vanguard Health at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vanguard Health or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Vanguard Health, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vanguard Health Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vanguard Health's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vanguard Health's historical news coverage. Vanguard Health's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 271.76 and 273.18, respectively. We have considered Vanguard Health's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vanguard Health is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vanguard Health Care is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vanguard Health Etf Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Vanguard Health is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vanguard Health backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vanguard Health, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 0.71 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 6 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
272.24 | 272.47 | 0.08 |
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Vanguard Health Hype Timeline
On the 30th of November Vanguard Health Care is traded for 272.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.23, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. Vanguard is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 272.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 21.78%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Vanguard Health is about 59.36%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 272.32. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Vanguard Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Vanguard Health Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vanguard Health's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vanguard Health's future price movements. Getting to know how Vanguard Health's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vanguard Health may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VDC | Vanguard Consumer Staples | (1.25) | 4 per month | 0.50 | (0.17) | 0.83 | (0.91) | 2.09 | |
| VFH | Vanguard Financials Index | 0.86 | 6 per month | 0.52 | 0.09 | 1.72 | (1.18) | 8.49 | |
| VGT | Vanguard Information Technology | 7.04 | 8 per month | 1.38 | 0.01 | 2.05 | (2.43) | 6.28 | |
| VCR | Vanguard Consumer Discretionary | 0.41 | 7 per month | 0.72 | 0.13 | 1.79 | (1.57) | 4.79 | |
| VPU | Vanguard Utilities Index | (1.08) | 8 per month | 0.75 | 0.02 | 1.70 | (1.40) | 4.65 |
Vanguard Health Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vanguard price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vanguard using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vanguard charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Vanguard Health Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Vanguard Health stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vanguard Health Care, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vanguard Health based on analysis of Vanguard Health hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vanguard Health's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vanguard Health's related companies.
Story Coverage note for Vanguard Health
The number of cover stories for Vanguard Health depends on current market conditions and Vanguard Health's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vanguard Health is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vanguard Health's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Vanguard Health Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
The market value of Vanguard Health Care is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanguard Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.