Alpha Metallurgical Resources Stock Price Prediction
| AMR Stock | USD 245.57 5.09 2.03% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
60
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.42 | EPS Estimate Current Year 15.535 | EPS Estimate Next Year 35.485 | Wall Street Target Price 332 |
Using Alpha Metallurgical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alpha Metallurgical Resources from the perspective of Alpha Metallurgical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alpha Metallurgical to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alpha because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Alpha Metallurgical after-hype prediction price | USD 248.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Alpha Metallurgical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alpha Metallurgical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alpha Metallurgical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alpha Metallurgical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alpha Metallurgical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alpha Metallurgical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alpha Metallurgical's historical news coverage. Alpha Metallurgical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 244.98 and 251.02, respectively. We have considered Alpha Metallurgical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alpha Metallurgical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alpha Metallurgical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alpha Metallurgical Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alpha Metallurgical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alpha Metallurgical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alpha Metallurgical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.23 | 2.99 | 2.43 | 0.45 | 10 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
245.57 | 248.00 | 0.99 |
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Alpha Metallurgical Hype Timeline
On the 1st of December Alpha Metallurgical is traded for 245.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 2.43, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.45. Alpha is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 248.0 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 28.31%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.99%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.23%. The volatility of related hype on Alpha Metallurgical is about 152.71%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 246.02. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.47 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 721.96 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.82 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Alpha Metallurgical Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Alpha Metallurgical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alpha Metallurgical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alpha Metallurgical's future price movements. Getting to know how Alpha Metallurgical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alpha Metallurgical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal | 0.96 | 10 per month | 2.55 | 0.05 | 5.27 | (4.12) | 14.58 | |
| METC | Ramaco Resources | (0.46) | 7 per month | 3.09 | 0 | 5.90 | (5.35) | 17.48 | |
| SXC | SunCoke Energy | 0.12 | 9 per month | 1.50 | 0.14 | 4.91 | (3.34) | 24.26 | |
| AREC | American Resources Corp | 0.01 | 9 per month | 3.97 | 0.21 | 12.05 | (5.31) | 33.45 | |
| ARCH | Arch Resources | 9.16 | 9 per month | 1.42 | 0.13 | 4.31 | (2.28) | 14.53 |
Alpha Metallurgical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alpha price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alpha using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alpha charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Alpha Metallurgical Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Alpha Metallurgical stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alpha Metallurgical Resources, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alpha Metallurgical based on analysis of Alpha Metallurgical hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alpha Metallurgical's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alpha Metallurgical's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0236 | 0.0225 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.38 | 1.45 |
Story Coverage note for Alpha Metallurgical
The number of cover stories for Alpha Metallurgical depends on current market conditions and Alpha Metallurgical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alpha Metallurgical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alpha Metallurgical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alpha Metallurgical Short Properties
Alpha Metallurgical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alpha Metallurgical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alpha Metallurgical Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alpha Metallurgical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alpha Metallurgical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 14.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 268.2 M |
Additional Tools for Alpha Stock Analysis
When running Alpha Metallurgical's price analysis, check to measure Alpha Metallurgical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alpha Metallurgical is operating at the current time. Most of Alpha Metallurgical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alpha Metallurgical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alpha Metallurgical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alpha Metallurgical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.