Vanguard Municipal Bond Fund Market Value
| VMSXX Fund | USD 1.00 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Municipal's money market fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Municipal.
| 11/19/2023 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Municipal on November 19, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Municipal Bond or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Municipal over 390 days. Vanguard Municipal is related to or competes with Vanguard Federal, Nuveen Dividend, Intrepid Income, Nationwide Small, Mirova Global, and Aggressive Balanced. Vanguard Municipal Money Market Funds investment objective is to seek to provide current income that is exempt from fede... More
Vanguard Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Municipal's money market fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Municipal Bond upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.78) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.01 |
Vanguard Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Municipal historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.041 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0055 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.53) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Municipal Bond Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Vanguard Money Market Fund to be not too volatile. Vanguard Municipal Bond owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.13, which indicates the fund had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found sixteen technical indicators for Vanguard Municipal Bond, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard Municipal's Coefficient Of Variation of 812.4, risk adjusted performance of 0.041, and Variance of 0.0155 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0158%. The entity has a beta of -0.0021, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Vanguard Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Vanguard Municipal is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.60 |
Good predictability
Vanguard Municipal Bond has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Municipal time series from 19th of November 2023 to 1st of June 2024 and 1st of June 2024 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Municipal Bond price movement. The serial correlation of 0.6 indicates that roughly 60.0% of current Vanguard Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.6 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.99 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Vanguard Municipal Bond lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Municipal money market fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Municipal's money market fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the money market fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Municipal money market fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Municipal money market fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Municipal money market fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Municipal money market fund have on its future price. Vanguard Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Municipal money market fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Municipal Bond.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Money Market Fund
Vanguard Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Money Market Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard Municipal security.
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